jawnbc: (NIamh!)
[personal profile] jawnbc
Another day, another semi-final. Woo hoo!  As I did for Tuesdays event (where I was spot on, first time evar), here's my predilections for tonight.

Sure qualifiers
Serbia - amazing performer with a huge diaspora behind him singing a very good song. There are 5 ex-Yugos in tonight's semi-final: how the fook did that happen?
Sweden - the hot favourite to win it all this year. Unique, mesmerizing, uptempo. Entirely un-Swedish (not schlager, in other words). Roaring into Saturday night, this brilliant piece of commercial trance is I say!
Ukraine - Another Ukrainian lady just brings it. This is a Euro 2012 anthem with one of the host nations saying "come on over". She can sing and she's hawt and the song's fun.
Lithuania - We also have 5 ex-Soviets tonight, which will help this very strong singer across the line with his OK song. Performing last will help too.
Estonia - my favourite this year. It's a classic ballad sung in Estonian by a sexy little man. Although he's been oversinging in some of the rehearsal--a bad idea that hopefully he's got out of his system. Last year Austria oversang herself out of the top 10. Be careful Ott; come cry on my shoulder if you miss the cut.

No chance in hell
Netherlands - a sweet song decently performed, but a bad draw and a really bad choice in terms of costume.
Slovakia - with so few rock songs this should've stood out. Too much product and not enough in tune howling undoes it.

Of the marginals
Which means we have 5 slots open and 11 songs that could take them. Given the ex-Yugo and ex-Soviet blocs present--and the votes of the French, German and UK also counting tonight--I'll start with the blocs. Among the Yugos are three of the 'sphere's most respected and popular artists: Serbia, Croatia and Macedonia have each sent stars.
Bosnia - a great late draw and Bosnia tends to get the second most diaspora votes after Serbia. Sweden often gives them lots of points too. She's lovely and the song is too.
Macedonia - despite singing in a different language, Kalliopi is the biggest Macedonian star in the Yugosphere. The draw's crap, however. It's a good song performed very very well. I expect Macedonia will reclaim its 10th place semi-final spot for the first time in years.
Belarus - A very strong boy-band with a clever production and a push from the Soviet bloc.
Slovenia - The ignored member of the Yugosphere--which suits most Slovenes just fine--means the bloc ranks Slovenian 4th of 4 in most scenarios. But she is ingenue of the year, with a lovely power ballad co-written by the man who wrote Serbia's winner from 2008. Juries will help this, but it deserves a spot on its own merits.
Malta - I'm going heart over head here. This is a great party song performed with buckets of charm and I think the juries will like it. But I'm might be thinking wishfully.

If I get 6/10 tonight I'll won't be surprised.

Date: 2012-05-24 03:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] london1967.livejournal.com
The Netherlands will get my vote tonight.

Date: 2012-05-24 04:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kribban.livejournal.com
I see you forgot Norway. It's a catchy song with an oriental touch. Plus the guy is a good performer. I think it will qualify.

Corrections

Date: 2012-05-24 05:35 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
Nadine Beiler (Austria 2011) did not "oversing" herself out of the top 10 - she WAS one of the ten to qualify.
What do you mean by saying "[Macedonia will reclaim its]10th. place semi-final spot" ? It matters not a jot* whether a country gets the 1st. spot or the 10th. spot or any spot in between since the qualifiers are announced in no particular order.
I disagree with you on the whole Sweden thing. This song has, imho, been heard a thousand times before - nothing at all original about it.
* The only effect it has is on the position the song occupies in the final. The first qualifier announced on Tuesday night had a 20/26 chance of picking a position not already occupied by one of the "Big 5 + host" countries. By the time Jedward got to draw out the envelope, their chances had reduced to 11/26. The second last qulifier tonight will have only a 2/26 chance of getting the position they might have most wanted in the final whilst the last of the qualifiers wil have no choice at all.

Date: 2012-05-24 07:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] itsjustc.livejournal.com
Only just got in again tonight so my predictions -
Serbia, Netherlands, Malta, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Estonia, Sweden, Turkey, Norway and FYR Macadonia although it could be Belarus rather than Bulgaria but I will stick with Bulgaria.

Date: 2012-05-25 08:07 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jamaisneutral.livejournal.com
Very well done! Very little surprises for you tonight :-)

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