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jawnbcThis year, predicting the winner of the contest is much more complicated. 36 nations have sent songs, leading to a preliminary selection among 22 who finished poorly last year. Or who are entering this year for the first time, or returning after being away 2-18 years. Eligibility for the songs are straightforward: not ever commercially released or recorded, 3 minutes long, at least one full verse and one full chorus. Songs must be sung live during the performance, though backing tracks provide the music; until the 70s a full orchestra (with each country supplying their own conductor) was the norm. Oh, and no more than 6 persons on-stage: this is designed to prevent singers showing up with 100 kids as their back-up singers, to manipulate the heart strings in a we-be-the-world-an'-shit way. Fair enough.
Surprisingly the writer, performer or musicians need to be from the country represented. Though most countries have songs at least co-written by a local--but hiring outsiders to perform is a long-time practice, going back to when Monaco and Luxembourg wanted to compete but argued (convincingly) that their small size disadvantages them. This year 5 countries are represented by outside singers. Over half the songs are co-written or written by non-nationals, many due to needed assistance with English lyrics. Given some of the strangelish that results, more help is at times needed.
The following are my criteria for the semi-final and final, based on my Winning Equation: Region (0-4 points, one each for Baltics, Balkans, former Eastern block, francophone, german?phone, Big 4[uk, France, Germany, Spain], Latin, Greek, and/or Scandinavian), song type (0-3 points, one each for uptempo, dance, anthem, or unique), order (2 points for last 5, 1 for 1-6 or 14-18, zero for the rest), and performance (0-3 points, based on live video or audio available online 3 great, 2 good, 1 fair, 0 poor or no live video). Total maximum possible: 12 points.
Prediction: semi-final (12 May; live across Europe except France, Russia and Poland (who aren't broadcasting 'cause they're already in the final).
With 22 entrants, the semi-final is about as long as previous years' finals (22-26 entrants). Three first timers (Andorra, Belarus & Albania) and Monaco's return after nearly 2 decades are particularly noteworthy--new faces tend to do quite well or quite badly. I expect Andorra is the weakest, with Monaco the unknown quantity (pre-released versions are very poor quality). There is a buzz already around Belarus' quirky entry, and Albania's singer is a lovely, dark haired young woman who starts out tentatively and then belts it out--classic Eurovision underdog winner credentials.
But there's some heavy hitters here too: several have sent their most popular singers to bat at Eurovision this year. Greece is getting lots of buzz from Sakis Rouvas: winning the same year of the Athens Olympics is the goal. Macedonia's song is haunting and very well sung. Serbia, Ukraine, and Israel are taking the same tack.
Some of these will qualify for the final (the top 10 do), but my money's on some darkhorses--and some longtime entrants who've not ever won. Malta wins the prize for "catchy even if I hate it" with "On Again...Off Again." Cyprus has chosen a singer whose Mum's Cypriot, though she's English: 17, adorable, passionate if not a high calibre vocalist. And the song is the slowest, sweetest ballad of the year--so standard it's rendered different amongst all the uptempo numbers. But my pick to qualify--and possibly win the final--is Lithuania's "What Happened to Your Love." It's a great song, sung very well (though neither singer, Linas or Simona, is terribly attractive), and the live version is arguably better than the studio.
After calculations, results were: Lithuania, Bosnia & Macedonia (8 points) and Malta, Serbia and Denmark (7 points). Whilst Ukraine, Cyprus, Latvia, Greece, Estonia and Croatia each had 6 points, I view Estonia and and Latvia the weakest (Latvia's singing in Latvian, Estonia in Estonia). Bear in mind the semi-final scores disappear, the to 10 get slotted into the draw for the final and it's back to square one
Surprisingly the writer, performer or musicians need to be from the country represented. Though most countries have songs at least co-written by a local--but hiring outsiders to perform is a long-time practice, going back to when Monaco and Luxembourg wanted to compete but argued (convincingly) that their small size disadvantages them. This year 5 countries are represented by outside singers. Over half the songs are co-written or written by non-nationals, many due to needed assistance with English lyrics. Given some of the strangelish that results, more help is at times needed.
The following are my criteria for the semi-final and final, based on my Winning Equation: Region (0-4 points, one each for Baltics, Balkans, former Eastern block, francophone, german?phone, Big 4[uk, France, Germany, Spain], Latin, Greek, and/or Scandinavian), song type (0-3 points, one each for uptempo, dance, anthem, or unique), order (2 points for last 5, 1 for 1-6 or 14-18, zero for the rest), and performance (0-3 points, based on live video or audio available online 3 great, 2 good, 1 fair, 0 poor or no live video). Total maximum possible: 12 points.
With 22 entrants, the semi-final is about as long as previous years' finals (22-26 entrants). Three first timers (Andorra, Belarus & Albania) and Monaco's return after nearly 2 decades are particularly noteworthy--new faces tend to do quite well or quite badly. I expect Andorra is the weakest, with Monaco the unknown quantity (pre-released versions are very poor quality). There is a buzz already around Belarus' quirky entry, and Albania's singer is a lovely, dark haired young woman who starts out tentatively and then belts it out--classic Eurovision underdog winner credentials.
But there's some heavy hitters here too: several have sent their most popular singers to bat at Eurovision this year. Greece is getting lots of buzz from Sakis Rouvas: winning the same year of the Athens Olympics is the goal. Macedonia's song is haunting and very well sung. Serbia, Ukraine, and Israel are taking the same tack.
Some of these will qualify for the final (the top 10 do), but my money's on some darkhorses--and some longtime entrants who've not ever won. Malta wins the prize for "catchy even if I hate it" with "On Again...Off Again." Cyprus has chosen a singer whose Mum's Cypriot, though she's English: 17, adorable, passionate if not a high calibre vocalist. And the song is the slowest, sweetest ballad of the year--so standard it's rendered different amongst all the uptempo numbers. But my pick to qualify--and possibly win the final--is Lithuania's "What Happened to Your Love." It's a great song, sung very well (though neither singer, Linas or Simona, is terribly attractive), and the live version is arguably better than the studio.
After calculations, results were: Lithuania, Bosnia & Macedonia (8 points) and Malta, Serbia and Denmark (7 points). Whilst Ukraine, Cyprus, Latvia, Greece, Estonia and Croatia each had 6 points, I view Estonia and and Latvia the weakest (Latvia's singing in Latvian, Estonia in Estonia). Bear in mind the semi-final scores disappear, the to 10 get slotted into the draw for the final and it's back to square one
