Oscar Predictions
Feb. 25th, 2005 11:17 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jawnbcIt's nearly here, we're oh so kweer, time to put mes gosses sur la ligne:
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER
Who should win: Clive Owen or Thomas Haden Church. Owen chews up the screen in Closer, but it's almost entirely unfun to watch. Haden Church is so realistic as a loser has-been soap actor, it's tempting to think he's playing himself--but no, it's a great performance.
Who will win: Morgan Freeman. He's been nominated 4 times now; many think he's overdue (and should've won for Street Smarts years ago.
Possible spoiler: Jamie Foxx. Outside chance folks will defy the can't-win-2-acting-awards-in-the-same-year. Usually double-noms get the lesser award--meaning supporting actor. Could enough people vote both ways to give him 2 statuettes?
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER
Who should win:: Madsen. Sideways doesn't work without her, even though she's not onscreen long enough be a Best Actress contender.
Who will win: Cate Blanchett. Never less than excellent, most still feel her loss to Gwyneth Paltrow was one of the great Oscar robberies. And here, once again, she humanizes a larger-than-life character (Katharine Hepburn vs. Elizabeth I).
Possible spoiler: Sophie Okonedo. This category loves to suprise, and since Hotel Rwandadoesn't have a chance for its other nominations, she could slip in.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
Who should win: Staunton. One of the great film performances of all time. Mike Leigh makes great films, but he tends to objectify the working class and demonize everyone else. But Staunton's performance is shatteringly real.
Who will win: Hilary Swank. Is she a Streep, or Foster? Well trophée #2 will put her on a par with them. But Million Dollar Baby has momentum galore.
Possible spoiler: Annette Bening. The award season started out as a Bening canonization: long overdue, Horrywood royalty, blah blah blah. But few saw the film, and none who did though the film itself was memorable. And it's comedic...but she be royalty, and maybe folks don't want to give Swank numero dos just yet.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY
Who should win: Foxx
Who will win: Foxx
Possible spoiler: Eastwood. He's got a few Oscars, but none for acting. And he's got a lot of mates (and doubtless countless other beholden to him) in Tinseltown.
DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE
Who should win: Taylor Hackford, Ray. Foxx is so dazzling it's easy to forget it's a great film. Biopics are often done entertainingly, but are rarely an artistic achievement
Who will win: Eastwood. Momentum. Social capital.
Possible spoiler: Scorceses, The Aviatorif there's vote splitting between Director and Picture. It's an epic, dramatic film. Not what he's known for, but he's never won for the stuff he should've. He may get it for being overdue, however.
BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
Who should win: Ray. See Director
Who will win: Million Dollar Baby. See Director
Possible spoiler: The Aviator, if there's vote splitting between Director and Picture
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER
Who should win: Clive Owen or Thomas Haden Church. Owen chews up the screen in Closer, but it's almost entirely unfun to watch. Haden Church is so realistic as a loser has-been soap actor, it's tempting to think he's playing himself--but no, it's a great performance.
Who will win: Morgan Freeman. He's been nominated 4 times now; many think he's overdue (and should've won for Street Smarts years ago.
Possible spoiler: Jamie Foxx. Outside chance folks will defy the can't-win-2-acting-awards-in-the-same-year. Usually double-noms get the lesser award--meaning supporting actor. Could enough people vote both ways to give him 2 statuettes?
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER
Who should win:: Madsen. Sideways doesn't work without her, even though she's not onscreen long enough be a Best Actress contender.
Who will win: Cate Blanchett. Never less than excellent, most still feel her loss to Gwyneth Paltrow was one of the great Oscar robberies. And here, once again, she humanizes a larger-than-life character (Katharine Hepburn vs. Elizabeth I).
Possible spoiler: Sophie Okonedo. This category loves to suprise, and since Hotel Rwandadoesn't have a chance for its other nominations, she could slip in.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
Who should win: Staunton. One of the great film performances of all time. Mike Leigh makes great films, but he tends to objectify the working class and demonize everyone else. But Staunton's performance is shatteringly real.
Who will win: Hilary Swank. Is she a Streep, or Foster? Well trophée #2 will put her on a par with them. But Million Dollar Baby has momentum galore.
Possible spoiler: Annette Bening. The award season started out as a Bening canonization: long overdue, Horrywood royalty, blah blah blah. But few saw the film, and none who did though the film itself was memorable. And it's comedic...but she be royalty, and maybe folks don't want to give Swank numero dos just yet.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY
Who should win: Foxx
Who will win: Foxx
Possible spoiler: Eastwood. He's got a few Oscars, but none for acting. And he's got a lot of mates (and doubtless countless other beholden to him) in Tinseltown.
DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE
Who should win: Taylor Hackford, Ray. Foxx is so dazzling it's easy to forget it's a great film. Biopics are often done entertainingly, but are rarely an artistic achievement
Who will win: Eastwood. Momentum. Social capital.
Possible spoiler: Scorceses, The Aviatorif there's vote splitting between Director and Picture. It's an epic, dramatic film. Not what he's known for, but he's never won for the stuff he should've. He may get it for being overdue, however.
BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
Who should win: Ray. See Director
Who will win: Million Dollar Baby. See Director
Possible spoiler: The Aviator, if there's vote splitting between Director and Picture
