Eurovision 2004 - Predictions the Final

Well we’ve tried to discern the 10 semi-finalists who will be in the final. Even presuming my predictions are right, there’s still the issue of their order of performance. In the current draw for the grand final, 10 spaces are available: the 14 competitors who automatically got in the final (the big 4 who pay for most of the contest’s costs UK Spain, France & Germany; plus the 10 highest ranked performers from last year’s event). With Spain finishing 8th and Germany 11th, Turkey, Belgium, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Poland, Iceland, Romania and Ireland qualified directly in the grand final. These have all drawn their performer slots, but the 10 pre-qualfiers will be slotted into 10 blanks throughout the draw. Click here for a good analysis of the final draw, including the sorts of songs that might benefit from each of these 10 blank spots.

Therefore my analysis includes those already in, as well the 10 I predicted would be winners of the semifinal. I’ve arbitrarily slotted those 10 into spots in the draw--very much lowering my confidence in the accuracy of this. But fook it, ‘tis all fer fun, eh?

First things first: the pre-contest favourite rarely wins, though they usually get a top 5 or 10. Sorry Belgium, Greece and Serbia--all of whom have lots of buzz about them on the internet. Last year everyone thought t.A.t.U. had it locked up: they finished 3rd. Year before? Spain was 8th and Germany finished 22nd. Year before, France was 4th. Last year’s winner was given odds of about 40:1, and didn’t rank well in any online polls. Such is the importance of the performance.

With 24 entrants (precluding a tie for 10th in the prelim), I’m not predicting that any of the new countries (Andorra, Belarus or Albania) will make their first “real” Eurovision show in 2004. Amongst the final 24, 4 of 5 Scandinavian countries (no Finland), 4 of 5 former Yugoslav (no Slovenia) republics, and 5 Eastern European (Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Romania, and Ukraine) make for strong regional voting blocks. Even if each of those blocks picks a different favourite song, there will still be lots of 7,8 or 10 block votes for the rest. It would only take 2 or 3 strong votes elsewhere to make any of these songs a strong (arithmetic) contender.

Twelve former winners (Austria, Turkey, Belgium, Germany have each one once; Norway, Denmark and Spain twice; Sweden 4 times, France and the UK five and Ireland all-time champs with 7), 4 long-time bridesmaids (who’ve never won: Cyprus, Greece, Malta & Iceland), a pack of post Berlin Wall-tumble entrants (Russia, Poland, Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia, Romania), plus infrequent competitors Lithuania and Macedonia. But France hasn’t won since 1977, Austria ‘6, Belgium ‘6, Germany ‘2, Spain ‘9! European expansion has very much shifted the contest results.

Several seasoned performers are representing their home countries this year, including Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Greece, Iceland, Russia, Croatia, Macedonia, Lithuania and Romania. Ireland, Spain, France and Germany are sending relatively inexperienced performers who won the Star Academie/Idol competition in their countries. Quite the gamble in my mind: last year’s winner was a 10 year veteran (Sertab Erener from Turkey) and it showed.

But being a veteran is tricky too. Katrina and the Waves (UK 1997), Céline Dion (Switzerland 1988, Brotherhood of Man (UK, 1976), Frida Boccara (France) and Lulu (UK, tied in 1969) and Carola (Sweden, 1991) were all established stars who won Eurovision after finding success nationally or internationally. But Julio Iglesias (Spain ‘68), Olivia Newton John (UK, ‘74), Françoise Hardy (Monaco ‘64), Domenico Modugno (Italy ‘58, ‘59 and ‘66), Umberto Tozzi (Italy ‘87)--and of course t.A.t.U (Russia, ‘03) are all examples of groups who were heavily favoured to win--and didn’t.

Poor Cliff Richard lost in ‘68 and ‘73, even after finding chart success well beyond the UK. But none of the performers this year are of high enough international reputation to make them heavy favourites--to win or tank out. The heaviest are arguablyh Sakis Rouvas from Greece and Lena P from Sweden: both are genuine stars in their native (and neighbouring) countries. The countries who score big for performance points: France, Macedonia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Greece, Malta, and Sweden

songwise there are so many uptemp/dance songs, as well as a shocking number of male ballads, that this year’s “something different could be another’s banal. Norway, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, and Croatia are ballading boyz; the UK entrant is a guitar-strumming, hands-swaying-over-da-head “euro-anthem” so one might call it a ballad as well. Women singing uptempo songs include Sweden, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Belgium; Spain, Macedonia, Bosnia, Greece and Denmark are sending male versions of same. That’s 16 of 24 songs. Short of a killer performance, it might be hard to distinguish between them.

Of those remaining, Austria is a straightforward pop song (think Lionel Ritchie) sung by 3 nice enough looking guys. If their harmonies are incredible, they might do well--but I dont’ think magic will happen for them. Malta’s song is also pop and painfully catchy--but will it seem better the 2nd time around (from the qualifier round 3 days earlier), or more annoying? Serbia’s song is quite different: a ballad, but so ethnic sounding it stands out from the other ballads. the bad news? a nearly 45 second instrumental opening--zzzzzzzz. Turkey, as host, has wisely gone for nearly the opposite of their winner last year: rock (not pop), guys (not a woman), jumpin’ n’ pumpin’ (not dancin’). But ska seems so 70s . . .

Lithuania’s song is a good pop duet: uptempo but not a dance track, though there are already several good remixes floating around. Cyprus would be a boring entry most other years, but it’s an ole skool power-ballad: starts slow and quiet and builds and builds. Lisa Andreas is very cute but totally approachable (not a Eurodiva like Charlotte Nielsen, or Dana International for that matter). A good singer, not a great one, but gives it all her heart. Poland seems to want to do very badly. An unexciting song and a lead singer who sounds like Carole Channing and Tina Turner’s cloned baby. Not a compliment, btw.

Using the same criteria as for the semi-final: are my criteria for the semi-final and final, based on my Winning Equation: Region (0-4 points, one each for Baltics, Balkans, former Eastern block, francophone, german?phone, Big 4[uk, France, Germany, Spain], Latin, Greek, and/or Scandinavian), song type (0-3 points, one each for uptempo, dance, anthem, or unique), order (2 points for last 5, 1 for 1-6 or 14-18, zero for the rest), and performance (0-3 points, based on live video or audio available online 3 great, 2 good, 1 fair, 0 poor or no live video). Total maximum possible: 12 points.

The final point breakdown was as follows: Sweden, Malta, Lithuania, Macedonia (8 points); Spain, Ukraine, Cyprus, Russia, UK, Romania (7 points); Greece, Belgium, Bosnia, Poland, Croatia, and Turkey (6 points). But I randomly assigned performance order slots, giving Croatia a distinct advantage (there’s only 1 slot in the last 5 for a qualifier); likewise Bosnia, Serbia, Lithuania, Greece got nul points for their (arbitrary) spots. So I’ve taken the numerical calc with a grain of salt and, uh, adjusted things a bit. If any of the strong songs from the preliminary (Lithuania, Bosnia, Macedonia, Malta, Denmark or Serbia)--provided their preliminary performance didn’t rely on a “stunt” to get more points. Such stunts tend to lose their impact upon subsequent viewings.

And so, as is done during the results on the show night, my points go to:

Un point (1) - Romania
Deux points (2) - Greece
Trois points (3) - Belgium
Quatre points (4) - Cyprus
Cinq points (5) - Russia
Six points (6) - Ukraine
Sept points (7) - Macedonia
Huit points (8) - Sweden
Dix points (10)- Malta

et Douze points à Lithuania!