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Canada will have its own federal election soon--before the US in fact, though it won't be officially "called" until tomorrow morning. And it'll all be over on 14 October (most likely date). We have strict spending limits on advertising and political contributions up here, so at least buying the election isn't possible. Many Canadians forget that one of the reasons the Liberal Party has been "the natural ruling party of Canada" is the buckets of corporate money it received until their donations were restricted. Oh, and their commitment to social justice is rather fluid (free votes on same-sex justice times 2 in the last decade or so).
Most Canadians I know eschew labels like "left" or "right". They are inclined to talk about fairness, common sense, peace, and justice. Which is why even our Conservative party (a centre-right party close to the Democrats in the States. No, really) even has its significant socially progressive wing. Or libertarian anyway. All of whom like making money before pretty much anything else.
But I digress.
Currently the composition of our (minority government) House of Commons is:
Tories (Cons.) 127
Liberals 95
Bloc Québec ` 48
NDP 30
Green 1
Independent 0
[vacant 4]
There will be a number of polls released between now and the day before the vote (when a polling blackout is the law). If/When the Tories get close to 40% the media will warn of "majority territory," that is, close to getting 155 seats for control of the house. Our last 2 Parliaments have been minorities, thought the Liberals held the most seats back then. The Tories need a net gain of 18 seats for a majority.
But Canadian elections aren't won nationally--they're won regionally: Atlantic Canada, Québec, Ontario, Western Canada (the North has 3 seats in total; rarely a factor). One has to follow polling regionally--usually provincially, sometimes down to the individual seats/ridings--to get a true sense of what's in the cards.
In 2006 a late surge in support for the Tories in Québec led to the pickup of 10 seats--from zero. They picked up a number in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and perhaps 2 in Western Canada. But they didn't win any seats in any of the metropolitan centres: Montréal, Toronto, or Vancouver. In Toronto they barely made a dent in the suburbs. And developments since then will impact most of the regions, mostly negatively.
( Looong winded )
There is scope for the Tories to end up a bit ahead of where they are now. Or down. At the leader's debates (which I hope Elizabeth May gets to participate in as Green leader), the NDP's Layton and Bloc's Duceppe will attack Harper plenty; all Dion needs to do for the Liberals is stay on message and not speak in mangled English. We could get a bigger or smaller Tory minority, or a Liberal minority. Unless something shocking happens.
And we're running our election parallel to the States, which will perhaps highlight even more th difference between left and right.
Most Canadians I know eschew labels like "left" or "right". They are inclined to talk about fairness, common sense, peace, and justice. Which is why even our Conservative party (a centre-right party close to the Democrats in the States. No, really) even has its significant socially progressive wing. Or libertarian anyway. All of whom like making money before pretty much anything else.
But I digress.
Currently the composition of our (minority government) House of Commons is:
Tories (Cons.) 127
Liberals 95
Bloc Québec ` 48
NDP 30
Green 1
Independent 0
[vacant 4]
There will be a number of polls released between now and the day before the vote (when a polling blackout is the law). If/When the Tories get close to 40% the media will warn of "majority territory," that is, close to getting 155 seats for control of the house. Our last 2 Parliaments have been minorities, thought the Liberals held the most seats back then. The Tories need a net gain of 18 seats for a majority.
But Canadian elections aren't won nationally--they're won regionally: Atlantic Canada, Québec, Ontario, Western Canada (the North has 3 seats in total; rarely a factor). One has to follow polling regionally--usually provincially, sometimes down to the individual seats/ridings--to get a true sense of what's in the cards.
In 2006 a late surge in support for the Tories in Québec led to the pickup of 10 seats--from zero. They picked up a number in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and perhaps 2 in Western Canada. But they didn't win any seats in any of the metropolitan centres: Montréal, Toronto, or Vancouver. In Toronto they barely made a dent in the suburbs. And developments since then will impact most of the regions, mostly negatively.
( Looong winded )
There is scope for the Tories to end up a bit ahead of where they are now. Or down. At the leader's debates (which I hope Elizabeth May gets to participate in as Green leader), the NDP's Layton and Bloc's Duceppe will attack Harper plenty; all Dion needs to do for the Liberals is stay on message and not speak in mangled English. We could get a bigger or smaller Tory minority, or a Liberal minority. Unless something shocking happens.
And we're running our election parallel to the States, which will perhaps highlight even more th difference between left and right.
