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[personal profile] jawnbc
As it tradition, here's my review of the songs in this year's Eurovision Semi-final. For those unfamiliar, 23 countries will compete on Thursday 18 May for 10 spots in the big show: the Final on Saturday 20 May. Another 14 countries are already pre-qualified for the Final. I'll review them on the 19th, after we know the results here. OK, in performance order:

Armenia Without your love André
Eurovision's reach into Asia minor continues with the first timers Armenia. In fact, the only other Eurovision country that it borders is Turkey (no, it doesn't share a border with Russia, despite being part of the Soviet Union). When we have countries début, they either do well or badly. This should do well: it's uptempo dancy pop, André is a very good performer and not Eastern European creepy and Gawd knows there's buckets of Armenias across Europe that should help in a televote. Prediction: qualifies 6th-10th.

Bulgaria Let me cry Mariana Popova
Bulgaria débuted badly last year. I think the song is interesting and my goodness the preview video is sexy. But it's so early (2nd of 23) and it's very languid if quasi-Hindipopish. With only one major linguistic ally in the Contest (Macedonia), I fear this gets lost in the shuffle. Prediction: Does not qualify, 19th-23rd.

Slovenia Mr Nobody Anžej Dežan
Every year there's a controvesy about the Slovenian national final. And every year I really like the song that wins. But since the drag kweens Sestre finished just outside the top 10 in 2003, it's been bad news. This is a great Europop song and dude can sing live. But either he or his stylist dropped a lot of nasty homemade acid when putting together his "look". Last year they sent a hawt guy with a lousy haircut and a strange staging--and he just missed the final. I suspect the odds are a bit better and I think they'll either just make it or just miss it. Prediction: qualifies 9th-10th, or just misses in 11th or 12th.

Andorra Sense tu Jennifer
Andorra finally sends a good song and a really strong singer. It's a torch ballad (translates roughly to "without you" from Catalan), but the 4th draw is often a black hole. There are 12 solo women in the final; but this is the only 1 of 3 woman ballads--though it is the best. Close but no cigar. Prediction: Does not qualify,13th-18th.

Belarus Mum Palina Smolava
It's utter crap. She can sing. Third time is not the charm. I blame the dictatorship for stifling creativity...and talent.Prediction: Does not qualify, 19th-23rd.

Albania Zjarr e ftohte Luiz Ejlli
He's cute (though too clean), he can sing, and like other Albanian entries it's got an interesting rhythm. But unless the Albanian minorities in Macedonia, Bosnia, Greece and elsewhere get him all 12s, he's back to Tirana on Friday morning. Prediction: Does not qualify, 19th-23rd.

Belgium Je t'adore Kate Ryan
OK, "Kate" is not her real name: she's a Flemish girl who sings mostly in French doing trance remakes of the fabulous Mylène Farmer. But she can sing live. She's team with Swedish producers for this English language (only the chorus has any French), and this is typically polished Scandipop. In terms of Eurovision-by-the-numbers she's blonde, pretty, under 25, and not cheap looking. The only thing she has going against her is that there are two other Scandipop ladies performing much, much later. But I think she'll still pull through. Prediction: qualifies 6th-10th.

Ireland Every song is a cry for love Brian Kennedy
Ah jaysus Brian, ye put me in a spot here...

First off: this is the 1000th song ever performed in the Contest; that the country that's won the most times (7!) is apt. After 2 lousy and several mediocre results, Ireland's tried to go back towards what won 4 times (and 3 2nds) back in the 90s: a strong, memorable ballad performed ably by a true professional. Brian Kennedy is a brilliant singer and songwriter. You know the Secret Garden (original) versions of You raise me up That's him. He sings well in English and Irish and is an out queer to boot. Over 1000 songs were submitted to RTÉ after it was announced Brian was to sing at the Eurovision. 4 songs were shortlisted, 1 ruled ineligible, and of the 3 this might have been the best song--written, as it turns out, by Brian. But it's languid. Lovely, but languid. However he is one of those who can hold the eye of millions with a look, a gesture, and his amazing voice. I just wish they had found a kick-ass uptempo pop song with a genuinely Celtic feel to it; this is more You raise me up light, without the soaring notes. Blah blah blah, ok fair enough. Prediction: qualifies 6th-10th.

Cyprus Why angels cry Annét Artání
Dear Cyprus: only the maudlin take the time to vote for songs that wail about dying children. And when it's so over-performed you feel compelled to avert your eyes from Mrs. Artání, that's pretty bad. Crapula. Prediction: Does not qualify, 19th-23rd.

Monaco La coco-dance Séverine Ferrer
The last time Monaco had a Séverine representing them they won...back in 1971. This is a catchy little novelty song, done to ukeleles and she's pert, telegenic and can sing. It is, however a bit bland and in the middle of a loooong night. If they stage it really really well it could sneak into the top 10 year. But I'm guessing it won't. Prediction: Does not qualify,13th-18th.

Macedonia Ninanajna Elena Risteska
Each of the last 2 years Macedonia has qualified for the final with an enticingly rhythmic song. In 2004 Tose Proeski was a great singer with the worst staging. Last year Martin Vucic was a lame-arsed singer with good staging for a teenage audience. This year the song is Beyoncé-légere, and the singer moves like a robot. If this gets through I will bomb Skjope myself. Prediction: Does not qualify,13th-18th.

Poland Follow my heart Ich Troje
They made the top 10 for Poland in 2002 with a "peace, love and understanding" song. This is not such a song. It's quasi-pop/dance/rap, and it has a great risk of being the dog's breakfast on-stage on the night. But Iche Troje have a following outside of Poland and they know how to perform live. It'll be close whether it qualifies or not.Prediction: qualifies 6th-10th.

Russia Never let you go Dima Bilan
Man, someone in Moscow has done their homework. He's cute, can sing live, the camera loves him, and is known in other ex-Soviet countries. And the song itself is a great pop song, that is derivative of t.a.T. u at their best, as well as much good Europop. This could win the semi, and with a good (late) draw, win it all. Prediction: qualifies 1st-5th.

Turkey Superstar Sibel Tüzün
She's a prop (like Sertab in 2003), it's danceable Europop with hip-hop influences (like Every way that I can), and it's supposed to be sun in English. That might make the difference..in the wrong way. Sibel's English dictiion is poor; I think it'd do better sung clearly in Turkish. Regardless, this is good to go through. Prediction: qualifies 6th-10th.

Ukraine Show me your love Tina Karol
Competent but unmemorable, and compared to many of the women in the contest this year, amateurish. Unless they pull something out of their magic bag like Ruslana in 2004...nah, lightning never strikes twice. Prediction: Does not qualify,13th-18th.

Finland Hard rock hallelujah Lordi
This is a total wildcard--it'll either roar or flop. It's "monster rock": 4 dudes dressed like creatures from hell, singing metal pop, with lots of effects. It's professional, memorable, and should do well. But I suspect that many voted for Norway's WigWam last year because it was fun (and rock). This methinks is too dark. If I'm wrong I'm OK with it. Prediction: Does not qualify,11th-16th.

Netherlands Amambanda Treble
Everyone who survived Catlick folk Mass in the 70s, raise your hands. This is the Eurovision derivation of Kumbaya. Oh Lord. They are gorgeous and can sing, but...I think no final this year. Prediction: Does not qualify,11th-16th.

Lithuania We are the winners LT United
Patently ridiculous often does well. This song chants "we are the winners of Eurovision. We are! We are!" Ad nauseum. And there's a better, funnier, more polished ridiculous song coming shortly thereafter. Prediction: Does not qualify,20th-23rd.

Portugal Coisas de nada Nonstop
Starts out really well, but goes nowhere. These women can sing and dance, but withouth a good song, prospects are middling. Prediction: Does not qualify,13th-18th.

Sweden Invincible Carola Häggkvist
I think politics in Eurovision sucks. Sure Carola's a wacky Pentecostal (complete with Xtian body art in the Swedish final), but if we go based on the music...it's a very polished if uninteresting Scandipop song. And Carola is a force of nature: she either wreakes havoc or blows out to sea. Expect the former, and a roar into the final, with a strong chance of being only the second person to win the Eurovision twice. Prediction: qualifies 1st-5th.

Estonia Through my window Sandra
Having only come to the Contest 10 times, Estonia bombed (early 90s), did increasingly well (96, 97, 99), was favoured to win but didn't (2000), and then won surprisingly (2001). But from 2004 onwards it's been bad, so this year they switched back to the selection formual that served them well in the past: an international jury. The song is in English but written by Estonians. Sandra is Swedish, and this is yet another polished Scandipop song (after Belgium and Sweden). And how two very similar songs will compare side-by-side will be interesting: Carola's a prop, but Sandra's 20 years younger and has the "aw" factor. I think it'll squeak into the final--barely. Prediction: qualifies 8th-10th.

Bosnia-Hercegovina Lejla Hari Varešanović
Who wouldn't want Bosnia to win, excepting perhaps Serbia? Poor abused, neglected, trying to its life back in order Bosnia? There are still a lot of Eurovision viewers who sit up as soon as they hear the next song is from Sarajevo. This year Bosnia seems to be gunning for bear: they've got their most famous artist and songwriter respected throughout Easern Europe. It's a beautiful marginally ethnic ballad, and all the songs around it feature women. Expect it to do very well, both here and on Saturday night: with the right (late) draw on Saturday it might well be "good evening Sarajevo" for 2007. Prediction: qualifies 1st-5th.

Iceland Congratulations Silvia Night
This is the other "anti-Eurovision" song, after Lithuania. But Silvia can sing, is a hugely funny comedienne (it's a shtick folks: think Icelandic trailer trash), and they've managed to translate the humorous sensibilities into English--and it's still hilarious. Anywhere in the draw this would be memorable; as the last song performed, this totally could win the semi-final. Me and my friends are already committed to going to Reykjavik next year if "the vote is in, I'll fucking win" proves correct. It also happens to be a superb song.Prediction: qualifies 1st-5th.

If you want to give the songs a listen or a look, I recommend two sites: Keith's excellent Hibernocentric All Kinds of Everything or Charlotte's Dansktastic Hot Eyes

Congratulations (Iceland; English) :: Eurovision 2006 :: Silvía Nótt

Date: 2006-04-24 05:51 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] aadroma.livejournal.com
Very interesting analysis. IIRC, that's the placement you give Andorra is the placement you gave Israel last year too. :: laugh :: Of course, that's depending entirely on how Jennifer does on stage...

I don't mind Macedonia's song this year. It's not great but it's better than the last two years. Yeah, she needs stage help bad -- that'll sink her.

May you be right about Cyrpus. Please please please.

Date: 2006-04-24 06:34 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mein.livejournal.com
Mad good.

Date: 2006-04-24 07:30 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kapitankraut.livejournal.com
Is Turkey singing in Turkish or English? Diggiloo.net lists Sibel as performing in Turkish still, and the English file I have is marked as an alternate version.

Date: 2006-04-24 07:32 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] loga.livejournal.com
Very nice analysis. Thank you!

One thing, though - I think Belarus should have really gone and demonstrated its love for dictatorship (which I am not against, by the way) by entertaining this song, which clearly supports the president. It is sort of like last year's Ukrainian entry, which was, "not political."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-olZC4YvM0

Date: 2006-04-24 03:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gorkabear.livejournal.com
Your previsions are very accurate for me. I'm printing them out. This year I'm watching the contest from England!

NB: "Sense tu" translates 100% into "without you"

Date: 2006-04-25 03:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] zurcherart.livejournal.com
Good stuff there ...

Date: 2006-04-25 07:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] progbear.livejournal.com
My early prediction, before I’d heard all the songs (heck, before all the songs were announced!) was for Belgium to win. Not that I like the song (I don’t, struck me as a trite Madonna wannabee), but it does sound like the sort of thing that brings the voters out. I suppose it depends on how strong the performance is come the big night. Bosnia definitely stands to at least do well, as they have many, er...political friends. And, not to telegraph, but I think Romania stands a very good chance, as “Tornerò” is getting some very good advance buzz (plus it’s a damn good song. Again, I think how well the performance goes off is a big factor).

I won’t cry if Andorra doesn’t at least make it to the final, but I will be disappointed.

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