idiot savant's prediction for semi-final one qualifier

[jawnbc]

It's time for my annual exercise in social semi-science. As in previous years, I've tried to quantify different aspects of an entry that can impact its prospects. These include:

• Draw order (up to 2 points)
• Performance quality (up to 3)
• Region for neighbourly support (up to 3)
• Song type (up to 4, but rarely higher than 2)
• Ethnic diaspora vote (up to 2)
• Schtick or gimmick (up to 1)

So the highest total possible score is 15. Highest this year is a very strong 14...see below:



Should qualify easily:  Czech Republic, Armenia, Turkey, Israel, Macedonia, Romania and Bosnia (7 of 10 spots)

On the cusp: Montenegro, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Malta

Pick 3: Montenegro, Finland, Malta

Jury pick for 10th qualifier if needed: Iceland over Finland

Comments

[gav-and-rog.livejournal.com]

hmm, interesting.. I'm not keen on the Czech entry but don't mind the others, though I would like Finland go to through as I like that entry - has a bit of meaning behind it, as far as I can tell lol...

only disappointed about Finland and Montenegro otherwise I think I agree with you. Though I have read elsewhere that they thought that Portugal would do well this year.

Oh, and woohoo to Asiavision - their web page seems to indicate that Australia may participate. Sounds like it could be interesting though we wouldn't stand a chance of winning and in any event hopefully SBS will show the program here.