ESC 2004 - some handicapping
Apr. 21st, 2004 10:47 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jawnbcIn a little less than a month the 49th winner of the Eurovision Song Contest will be awarded in Istanbul Turkey. And for the first time I'll be there--press pass giving me backstage access, due to my work on the ESCToday website--the blue ribbon standard for ESC webzines.
Winning Eurovision doesn't happen because you've got the best song--arguably the best song rarely wins. Eurovision winners typically have broad support from across Europe: generally the song with the most first-place rankings wins. Generally.
Regionalism factors strongly into voting. As do large ethnic enclaves, whom often swing the vote for their home country. Germany almost always gives a high ranking to Turkey, and the UK to Ireland. Large Russian communities in the Baltics (and now Ukraine and Belarus) mean Russia gets strong support from them. The post-Yugoslav nations rank each other well, but France seems indifferent to other francophone nations--though they always get strong support from Belgium and Switzerland. Some argue these voting patterns are somewhat attributable to language issues: if you understand the words, and if the melody reflects your own cultural frame, you'll support it.
In the days when only 12-15 countries competed, French language songs often won--after Ireland, Luxembourg is tied with the UK for most wins (7). All tolled, nearly 1/3 of all winners were in French--though the last French song to win was Céline Dion's win for Switzerland in 1988--nearly 20 years ago. Tant pis . . .Today most (almost 90% this year) songs are now in English, and a non-English song hasn't won since 1998 (Diva, Dana International, Israel, in Hebrew). Still, Turkey won last year (in English, complete with faux rap), including support from their ostensible nemesis Greece. Oh, and Cyprus. Regionalism be damned.
Performance is another factor: it's been years since anyone's one with a bad performance. To win you have to "sell" the song, and the list of so-so songs won by great performers is long. Many winners arguably were a bit flat, or off pitch, but they sang with heart, gusto! Again, Sertab Erener's win last year for Turkey was a great, give-'er performance. And they gave it to her.
Song type is a factor as well. The last 6 winners were uptempo; a pure ballad hasn't won since 1994 (Ireland, Rock and Roll Kids). Two others were unique: a virtually wordless nocturne (Nocturne, Secret Garden, Norway 1995) and a haunting, ethereal Celtic hymn (The Voice, Eimear Quinn, Ireland, 1996). In 1997 Love Shine a Light by Katrina and the Waves--perhaps the archetypal Euro-Anthem--won by the largest margin ever.
Order of performance is also often a factor. Last year's winner sang 4th, but that's the first time someone's won from singing 4th. In fact, only 6 of the last 20 winners sang in the first half (of 24-26 songs). 6 winners were among the last 5 songs performed--most likely because voters remember the one's they most recently saw/heard.
Therefore, my equation for winning Eurovision: R + P + S + O = W Region plus Performance plus Songtype plus Order equals winner. Next: my predictions for this year!
Winning Eurovision doesn't happen because you've got the best song--arguably the best song rarely wins. Eurovision winners typically have broad support from across Europe: generally the song with the most first-place rankings wins. Generally.
Regionalism factors strongly into voting. As do large ethnic enclaves, whom often swing the vote for their home country. Germany almost always gives a high ranking to Turkey, and the UK to Ireland. Large Russian communities in the Baltics (and now Ukraine and Belarus) mean Russia gets strong support from them. The post-Yugoslav nations rank each other well, but France seems indifferent to other francophone nations--though they always get strong support from Belgium and Switzerland. Some argue these voting patterns are somewhat attributable to language issues: if you understand the words, and if the melody reflects your own cultural frame, you'll support it.
In the days when only 12-15 countries competed, French language songs often won--after Ireland, Luxembourg is tied with the UK for most wins (7). All tolled, nearly 1/3 of all winners were in French--though the last French song to win was Céline Dion's win for Switzerland in 1988--nearly 20 years ago. Tant pis . . .Today most (almost 90% this year) songs are now in English, and a non-English song hasn't won since 1998 (Diva, Dana International, Israel, in Hebrew). Still, Turkey won last year (in English, complete with faux rap), including support from their ostensible nemesis Greece. Oh, and Cyprus. Regionalism be damned.
Performance is another factor: it's been years since anyone's one with a bad performance. To win you have to "sell" the song, and the list of so-so songs won by great performers is long. Many winners arguably were a bit flat, or off pitch, but they sang with heart, gusto! Again, Sertab Erener's win last year for Turkey was a great, give-'er performance. And they gave it to her.
Song type is a factor as well. The last 6 winners were uptempo; a pure ballad hasn't won since 1994 (Ireland, Rock and Roll Kids). Two others were unique: a virtually wordless nocturne (Nocturne, Secret Garden, Norway 1995) and a haunting, ethereal Celtic hymn (The Voice, Eimear Quinn, Ireland, 1996). In 1997 Love Shine a Light by Katrina and the Waves--perhaps the archetypal Euro-Anthem--won by the largest margin ever.
Order of performance is also often a factor. Last year's winner sang 4th, but that's the first time someone's won from singing 4th. In fact, only 6 of the last 20 winners sang in the first half (of 24-26 songs). 6 winners were among the last 5 songs performed--most likely because voters remember the one's they most recently saw/heard.
Therefore, my equation for winning Eurovision: R + P + S + O = W Region plus Performance plus Songtype plus Order equals winner. Next: my predictions for this year!
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no subject
Date: 2004-04-21 02:30 pm (UTC)I'm thinking of throwing a little party to watch ESC live from the US!
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Date: 2004-04-21 09:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2004-04-21 09:50 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2004-04-21 11:19 pm (UTC)TV5, the Montréal-based French cable/satellite network used to show on delay the same day (so it was on 21h00 in Vancouver the same Saturday night). I used have gatherings, but no one seemed keen to gather around the laptops and watch a 320 x 250 feed over the net on a Saturday afternoon. But keep an eye on their website (do a search for TV5 and you'll hit it).
Oooooh I'm sooo excited. Spain's picked another Canary this year! Rrrrrramon. Since Beeeeeeeeeth stuffed up Spain's best chance to win in years (great song Dime, but she was 2 kewl to sing a dance number with corazon). Unlike a lot of people, I never thought Rrrrrrrrrrosa! had a chance with "Europe's Living a Celebration." Even after losing the weight.
Did I mention that "Eres Tu" by Mocedades is one of my all-time favourite Eurovision songs--and it should've won!
no subject
Date: 2004-04-21 11:25 pm (UTC)and WORSE
we go FIRST
which means we have no chance. :(
TVE Internacional will definitely show it. i've been asking friends if they would come,... I'll add a few incentives, big big screen, lots of free food and free beer!! that should help.
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Date: 2004-04-22 04:58 am (UTC)My heart's on Lithuania; my money's on Cyrpus or Malta or (dark horse) Macedonia.
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Date: 2004-04-21 11:41 pm (UTC)HOMBRES with Eva Santamaria. It was a great song.. Now, what year was this?? aha!
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Date: 2004-04-22 04:51 am (UTC)Heh heh Check this out!
no subject
Date: 2004-04-22 09:12 am (UTC)