idiot savant's prediction for semi-final one qualifier

It's time for my annual exercise in social semi-science. As in previous years, I've tried to quantify different aspects of an entry that can impact its prospects. These include:

• Draw order (up to 2 points)
• Performance quality (up to 3)
• Region for neighbourly support (up to 3)
• Song type (up to 4, but rarely higher than 2)
• Ethnic diaspora vote (up to 2)
• Schtick or gimmick (up to 1)

So the highest total possible score is 15. Highest this year is a very strong 14...see below:



Should qualify easily:  Czech Republic, Armenia, Turkey, Israel, Macedonia, Romania and Bosnia (7 of 10 spots)

On the cusp: Montenegro, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Malta

Pick 3: Montenegro, Finland, Malta

Jury pick for 10th qualifier if needed: Iceland over Finland