idiot savant's prediction for semi-final two qualifier

 It's time for my annual exercise in social semi-science. As in previous years, I've tried to quantify different aspects of an entry that can impact its prospects. These include:

• Draw order (up to 2 points)
• Performance quality (up to 3)
• Region for neighbourly support (up to 3)
• Song type (up to 4, but rarely higher than 2)
• Ethnic diaspora vote (up to 2)
• Schtick or gimmick (up to 1)

So the highest total possible score is 15. Highest this year is a very strong 14--but only 11 in this semi. This is a much tougher semi, with few stand-outs; see below:




Should qualify easily:  Latvia, Serbia, Albania, Moldova, Ukraine, Norway, Azerbaijan (8 of 10 spots)

On the cusp: Greece, Lithuania (!), Netherlands

Pick 1: Greece

Jury pick for 10th qualifier if needed: Netherlands or Lithuania