ESC 2011 semi-final one prediction

 It's time for my annual prognostications regarding this year's Eurovision. Since we will only know the 25 songs in the final after the semi-final, I won't do that prediction until after semi-final 2 on 12 May. Of course.

My system is banal yet cunning; see below:

• Performance: 0-3 points
• Region: 0-3 points (does this country benefit from any bloc voting patterns)
• Song type: 0-3 points (points for uptempo, ballad, dance, unique, can earn multiple points)
• Order: 0-2 points (opening and last 4 are weighted more: the middle bunch are disadvantaged)
• Ethnic: 0-1 point (can one tell the country/region based on the song or its presentation)
• Schtick (or gimmick): 0-1 point (could be a prop, could be the backstory of the artist
•  

Therefore the maximum possible points is 13. Which no one got in either semi-final this year.  Here's the data for semi-one:


Entries highlighted in yellow are weighted highest; those in grey are the "cusp" tier.

That means 7 songs should qualify: Norway, Albania, Turkey, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan.
Of the ones on the cusp, my intuition says the following will show through: Georgia, Iceland, Greece

ESC 2011 semi-final two predictions

 It's time for my annual prognostications regarding this year's Eurovision. Since we will only know the 25 songs in the final after the semi-final, I won't do that prediction until after semi-final 2 on 12 May. Of course.

My system is banal yet cunning; see below:

• Performance: 0-3 points
• Region: 0-3 points (does this country benefit from any bloc voting patterns)
• Song type: 0-3 points (points for uptempo, ballad, dance, unique, can earn multiple points)
• Order: 0-2 points (opening and last 4 are weighted more: the middle bunch are disadvantaged)
• Ethnic: 0-1 point (can one tell the country/region based on the song or its presentation)
• Schtick (or gimmick): 0-1 point (could be a prop, could be the backstory of the artist
•  

Therefore the maximum possible points is 13. Which no one got in either semi-final this year.  Here's the data for semi-one:


Entries highlighted in yellow are weighted highest; those in grey are the "cusp" tier.

That means 5 songs should qualify: Bosnia, Israel, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark.
Of the ones on the cusp, my intuition says the following will show through: Austria, Cyprus, Slovenia, Romania and Ireland.