ESC 2011 semi-final one prediction

[jawnbc]

 It's time for my annual prognostications regarding this year's Eurovision. Since we will only know the 25 songs in the final after the semi-final, I won't do that prediction until after semi-final 2 on 12 May. Of course.

My system is banal yet cunning; see below:

• Performance: 0-3 points
• Region: 0-3 points (does this country benefit from any bloc voting patterns)
• Song type: 0-3 points (points for uptempo, ballad, dance, unique, can earn multiple points)
• Order: 0-2 points (opening and last 4 are weighted more: the middle bunch are disadvantaged)
• Ethnic: 0-1 point (can one tell the country/region based on the song or its presentation)
• Schtick (or gimmick): 0-1 point (could be a prop, could be the backstory of the artist
•  

Therefore the maximum possible points is 13. Which no one got in either semi-final this year.  Here's the data for semi-one:


Entries highlighted in yellow are weighted highest; those in grey are the "cusp" tier.

That means 7 songs should qualify: Norway, Albania, Turkey, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan.
Of the ones on the cusp, my intuition says the following will show through: Georgia, Iceland, Greece

Comments

[gav-and-rog.livejournal.com]

Yay! You're back with your predictions. Interesting choices and I note that Russia doesn't make your cut. Surely there would be enough neighbourhood voting within the voting countries in semi 1 to push them through?

And Norway? Really? Shocking song but I guess it would appeal as people can sing haba haba within the first minute so that would probably count.

And Portugal? I wouldn't have thought people would have gone for this sort of song.

At the moment, I think I'm running with Poland, Turkey, Russia, Croatia, Hungary, Azerbaijan, Albania, Georgia, Malta, and regrettably Greece.

Hope you've been well.

Gav.

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