Canadian election: updated voting prediction

[jawnbc]

Wow what a difference a month makes! Market research across the country shows all sorts of shifts happening. And while it might surprise some of my progressive pals, for the most part I'm OK with it. Here's a review, region-by-region:

Atlantic Canada:
NF is currently 5L, 2C, 0NDP--and shouldn't change much, if at all.
PEI is always 4L.
NS is more interesting: currently 6L, 3C, 2NDP, but the NDP once had 6 seats a mere 2 election cycles ago. I suspect they'll pick up 1 from the Libs (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour): 5L 3NDP 3C.
NB is also pretty tame: currently 7L, 2C, 1NDP. I think the Cons might pick up St John from the Libs, leaving 6L, 3C and 1NDP.

Québec:
With all the brouhaha about the Con ascendancy here, unless that vote is consolidated in a strongly Federalist part of the nation province, it won't translate to (m)any seats. Currently 54Bloc, 21L, but the Bloc peaked earlier and while it's hard to say where the Con increase will benefit Libs (siphoning off protest Bloc votes from soft federalists) or the Bloc (splitting the federalist vote) is merely guess work on my part.
Prediction: 54 Bloc, 19L, 2C

Ontario:
Also known as the motherlode--106 of 308 ridings, over 1/3 of all Canadian seats, about half of which are urban/suburban. There's a fair bit of volatility here, and many might go NDP---except some soft NDipper support will collapse with the Harper panic.
Currently: 7NDP, 24C, 74L, 1IND
Prediction: 9NDP, 45C, 52L

Manitoba:
Part prairie, part urban, and quite the spread between the parties: 7C, 4NDP, 3L. Churchill will go Liberal after Bev Desjarlais being dumped by the NDP, a couple of Winnipeg seats might shift as well.
Prediction: 7C 3NDP 4L

Saskatchewan:
The home of the old CCF didn't elect a single NDP MP last time out; in fact only 1 Liberal managed to prevent a Con sweep of all 14 seats. But last time a number of NDP supporters switched to the Liberals...only to have the Cons come up the middle. Not again...
Prediction: 10C 4NDP

Alberta:
last time 2L 26C. This time 28C. Next!

BC:
This started out very interesting, but the rise of the Cons will scare many urban voters away from the NDP to the Liberals. Even so there will be a number of NDP pick-ups and we might still have to see how urban/suburban BC votes to decide the next government
Currently: 5NDP, 8L, 22C, 1IND
Prediction: 11NDP, 6L, 19C

Which adds up to:
Liberal: 101
Conservative: 122
NDP: 31
Bloc: 54

I didn't make this up: another minority. Unless the Conservatives pick up 85+ seats on ON or at least 20 in QB, they cannot get anywhere near a majority. This would leave the balance of power with...le Bloc.

Nice.

Comments

[detailbear.livejournal.com]

Which might make 2006 "the year with 2 elections". I can't see a Conservative-Bloc coalition working long, if at all. I could see an NDP-Liberal coalition in the offing, though.

I've been waiting for this kind of analysis. Thank you.

[rogula.livejournal.com]

I could see a conservative bloc coalition working for a while, but it would not be needed. What would be needed would simply be compromise on the more sensative issues of the conservative platform. If they could do that then they could draw in support from different parties for different issues.

Would that happen, don't know. I hope so cause no one wants another election.

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

I don't know if Cons will pick up anything in Quebec, but it's a nice thought. I think the support there will be in votes, but I doubt it'll translate into seats.

I think Libs and Cons will split in Ontario, allowing for more NDP to make headway.

Don't count on all of Edmonton to go Tory. There's a few ridings there with a four, maybe even a five-way race going on. In my own riding in Calgary I'm amazed with the shear number of Green signs, not that it'll matter.

BC, I wouldn't be surprised to see no Liberals in.

But that's a pretty good prediction over-all. I think The Libs and Cons will pull in very close with Layton doing exceptionally well.

[gav-and-rog.livejournal.com]

Howdy and g'day from Australia...

Forgive me as I don't know Canadian politics.... What would it mean if the Liberals won and what would it mean if the Conservatives won?

Do either party mean anything detrimental for gay men and women generally?

Thanks,
Gav.

[velvetpage.livejournal.com]

Democraticspace.com predicts the Cons will pick up three seats in Quebec. Last time, their predictions were within four seats in each party of being right on the money, which is pretty darn good.

[velvetpage.livejournal.com]

The Liberals are the party that recently signed into law the act making gay marriage completely legal. The Conservatives want a free vote in the House to decide whether or not to repeal that law. Both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois support gay marriage, and well over half of the Liberal caucus did, too.

Conservatives want family values and tax money back in the pockets of Canadians - a classic right-wing position. Liberals are centrist, and believe in supporting minority rights through legislation when necessary. They're also the guys who've been in power for thirteen years, so a lot of people are ready for a change. They've been involved in quite a few scandals lately, and people are starting to wonder if a Conservative minority, backed by parties that do not support the more right-wing elements of their agenda, might not be the best thing for the country.

[danbearnyc.livejournal.com]

So were discussing the Jonathan case in class the other day, you know, the boy who had his dick burned off and was reared a girl, and one of the students asked where Winnipeg, Manitoba was.

This was one of the intelligent students in the class, too.

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

Get enough folks betting on the superfecta, eventually somebody will get all four horses in the exact order. But if they consistently predict the outcome, then they should be burned for the witches they are.

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

The Conservative leader says he will allow a private members bill to be introduced that calls for a free vote on SameSexMarriage. When it was passed in the spring, Liberal members were ordered to vote for SSM. But the Conservatives will probablely be teetering to delcately balance a minority government. Such a measure would be political suicide. Conservative members probablely won't touch the issue. Then again, some hold deep convictions against allowing SSM.

[bix02138.livejournal.com]

not to excuse geographical ignorance, but many of 'em might be hard pressed to identify santa fe, new mexico, too. i can't begin to tell you how many people don't know the difference between iowa and idaho, so winnipeg issues (particularly since the jets departed, and the city fell of n.h.l. scores each night) don't surprise me.

[danbearnyc.livejournal.com]

But what about the Royal Winnipeg Ballet? Guy Maddin? Those snakes?

[jawnbc]

I tried to be generous on the side of surprising results. Hence the blue QB seats, for example. I actually believe they won't get any.

You think McLellan will hang on again? I think her goose is cooked...especially if the Cons could form goverment.

I stand 100% behind my prediction for PEI, however. ;)

[jawnbc]

G'day Gav!

The Canadian parties aren't well aligned with any of the Australian parties. Here in Canada the Liberals are centre/centre-left, the Cons are increasingly centre-right (after being right for the last few years), with the NDP being a social democratic party a bit further left than the Aus Democrats. The Bloc Quebecois are a separatist party, but in terms of ideology they're quite similar to the NDP.

Only the Cons have any policies that aren't wholly supportive of gay individuals and families. And even some Cons support gay marriage...though there are a fair number of Christian-informed MPS for the Cons.

[jawnbc]

Play them some BTO...

[danbearnyc.livejournal.com]

Bachman Turner Overdrive?

[jawnbc]

yeah baby! From da 'peg!

[danbearnyc.livejournal.com]

No, there are some things I won't do to impressionable youth.

[gav-and-rog.livejournal.com]

Merci everyone for your replies.

I'm glad to hear that the federal government passed the law legalising gay marriage. Although I assume that the provinces that are against gay marriage will or have invoked their um, constitutional right (can't think of the exact wording or section) where they can exclude themselves for 5 years against the law?

I'm not an anti-family person but I do hate the term 'family' anything. The government here in Australia really to me appears to be creating a social divide in that if you don't have a family then you don't count and you arne't compelte until you have one. So, I don't think I'd be a Conservative supporter just on that alone.

I must try to keep up with this story too. I'm trying to convince my partner to try living in Canada. I worked in Toronto this time last year for about 9 weeks and just loved it and in fact we got married in Toronto in 2004 at about this time too (well Jan 20 actuallement). He didn't love Toronto and since we don't speak French I can't convince him to try Montreal (although I think he did love there when he visited in 1998) so it might have to be Vancouver as a lot of people tell me that we would love it there. I'm very interested in yours and querrelle's settling into Vancouver as it may have lessons for us if we ever make the next move.

All the best everyone for 2006.

Gav.

[jawnbc]

Before the Liberals legislated same-sex marriage, 7 provincial and 1 territorial courts all ruled that denying same-sex couples access to civil marriage was unconstitutional. None of the provincial governments in question were willing to pursue a challenge any further, since they knew it was a (constitutional) fait accompli. In fact the one court awarded costs to the couples in question because the government challenged a case they should have known they would lose.

Alberta grumbled a bit about the Notwithstanding clause, but decided against. And the sky didn't fall in there either. ;)

Vancouver's great but much smaller than a Melbourne or Sydney or Toronto or Montreal. I love it; querrelle is warming to it more slowly. He's more of a "big pond" person...me I like my smaller, liveable one!

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

Landslide Annie is gone, First she whines that the Cons are out knocking on doors just to defeat her. Now she's been caught trying to fraud Elections Canada; Her own records show her campaign posted up 1,400 signs, yet she's claimed for 1,600 replacment signs due to vandalism. (Candidates get/claim remittance for vandaled signs)