Canadian election: updated voting prediction

[jawnbc]

Wow what a difference a month makes! Market research across the country shows all sorts of shifts happening. And while it might surprise some of my progressive pals, for the most part I'm OK with it. Here's a review, region-by-region:

Atlantic Canada:
NF is currently 5L, 2C, 0NDP--and shouldn't change much, if at all.
PEI is always 4L.
NS is more interesting: currently 6L, 3C, 2NDP, but the NDP once had 6 seats a mere 2 election cycles ago. I suspect they'll pick up 1 from the Libs (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour): 5L 3NDP 3C.
NB is also pretty tame: currently 7L, 2C, 1NDP. I think the Cons might pick up St John from the Libs, leaving 6L, 3C and 1NDP.

Québec:
With all the brouhaha about the Con ascendancy here, unless that vote is consolidated in a strongly Federalist part of the nation province, it won't translate to (m)any seats. Currently 54Bloc, 21L, but the Bloc peaked earlier and while it's hard to say where the Con increase will benefit Libs (siphoning off protest Bloc votes from soft federalists) or the Bloc (splitting the federalist vote) is merely guess work on my part.
Prediction: 54 Bloc, 19L, 2C

Ontario:
Also known as the motherlode--106 of 308 ridings, over 1/3 of all Canadian seats, about half of which are urban/suburban. There's a fair bit of volatility here, and many might go NDP---except some soft NDipper support will collapse with the Harper panic.
Currently: 7NDP, 24C, 74L, 1IND
Prediction: 9NDP, 45C, 52L

Manitoba:
Part prairie, part urban, and quite the spread between the parties: 7C, 4NDP, 3L. Churchill will go Liberal after Bev Desjarlais being dumped by the NDP, a couple of Winnipeg seats might shift as well.
Prediction: 7C 3NDP 4L

Saskatchewan:
The home of the old CCF didn't elect a single NDP MP last time out; in fact only 1 Liberal managed to prevent a Con sweep of all 14 seats. But last time a number of NDP supporters switched to the Liberals...only to have the Cons come up the middle. Not again...
Prediction: 10C 4NDP

Alberta:
last time 2L 26C. This time 28C. Next!

BC:
This started out very interesting, but the rise of the Cons will scare many urban voters away from the NDP to the Liberals. Even so there will be a number of NDP pick-ups and we might still have to see how urban/suburban BC votes to decide the next government
Currently: 5NDP, 8L, 22C, 1IND
Prediction: 11NDP, 6L, 19C

Which adds up to:
Liberal: 101
Conservative: 122
NDP: 31
Bloc: 54

I didn't make this up: another minority. Unless the Conservatives pick up 85+ seats on ON or at least 20 in QB, they cannot get anywhere near a majority. This would leave the balance of power with...le Bloc.

Nice.

Comments

[velvetpage.livejournal.com]

The Liberals are the party that recently signed into law the act making gay marriage completely legal. The Conservatives want a free vote in the House to decide whether or not to repeal that law. Both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois support gay marriage, and well over half of the Liberal caucus did, too.

Conservatives want family values and tax money back in the pockets of Canadians - a classic right-wing position. Liberals are centrist, and believe in supporting minority rights through legislation when necessary. They're also the guys who've been in power for thirteen years, so a lot of people are ready for a change. They've been involved in quite a few scandals lately, and people are starting to wonder if a Conservative minority, backed by parties that do not support the more right-wing elements of their agenda, might not be the best thing for the country.