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jawnbcCanada elections Members of Parliament (MPs) directly in each of 308 riding (equivalent to a congressional district in the US) in 10 provinces and 3 territories. Aside from specific constitutional guarantees regarding seat numbers per province/territory:
- at least 4 seats per province, hence PEI's 4 ridings with tiny populations of about 35K/riding (national average closer to 100k/ urban riding; rural ridings are often huge in terms of distance but sparsely populated)
-at least 75 seats for Quebec (regardless of its shrinking population)
- one seat each for the territories: Nunavut, the Northwest Territories & the Yukon
Otherwise, an approximate proportion per province of the national population gives each province its number of seats. Then both population and geographic considerations come into play to decide the boundaries for each riding. Provinces whose populations are decreasing could lose seats, but not any lower than the number they held in 1985. Every 10 years seats are added to adjust for population growth: for the most part BC, AB and ON get more seats during these cycles. But riding boundaries can change during the 10 year cycles...and some adjustments do occur.
Of 308 seats, 106 are in ON and 75 in QB--in other words, over half the seats (181/308). No government has won a majority without getting either half of both (ON AND QB), or sweeping 80% or more of Ontario. There are 92 seats in "the West (MB, SK, AB, BC), 74 of them in BC & AB. There are 32 seats in Atlantic Canada (NF, NS, NB, PEI). Plus 3 territories equals 306. A majority is 155 seats.
There is no chance--none--of the Conservatives sweeping Ontario: their absolutely best performance tonight would be 75 seats....55 is more likely. And while the Conservatives are polling well overall in Quebec, they're not consolidating the vote in many ridings. They will win at least 3, perhaps 8. But probably 3. They will do very well out here in the West, but not enough to get a majority.
And poltiically, the Conservatives are much more similar to the Democrats than the Republicans.
We also have 4 viable parties, all of whom hold seats. The social democratic NDP will almost certainly gain seats--especially in ON and BC. The Bloc Quebecois will probably finish where they are now (54 of 75), plus or minus a few seats.
Don't panic. Most of us aren't. Minority governments are often the best in terms of compromise. Starting tomorrow, 2 parties on the opposite ends of the political spectrum au Canada (NDP and Cons) will have to start playing nicely. Like adults even.
Which is good for Canada.
- at least 4 seats per province, hence PEI's 4 ridings with tiny populations of about 35K/riding (national average closer to 100k/ urban riding; rural ridings are often huge in terms of distance but sparsely populated)
-at least 75 seats for Quebec (regardless of its shrinking population)
- one seat each for the territories: Nunavut, the Northwest Territories & the Yukon
Otherwise, an approximate proportion per province of the national population gives each province its number of seats. Then both population and geographic considerations come into play to decide the boundaries for each riding. Provinces whose populations are decreasing could lose seats, but not any lower than the number they held in 1985. Every 10 years seats are added to adjust for population growth: for the most part BC, AB and ON get more seats during these cycles. But riding boundaries can change during the 10 year cycles...and some adjustments do occur.
Of 308 seats, 106 are in ON and 75 in QB--in other words, over half the seats (181/308). No government has won a majority without getting either half of both (ON AND QB), or sweeping 80% or more of Ontario. There are 92 seats in "the West (MB, SK, AB, BC), 74 of them in BC & AB. There are 32 seats in Atlantic Canada (NF, NS, NB, PEI). Plus 3 territories equals 306. A majority is 155 seats.
There is no chance--none--of the Conservatives sweeping Ontario: their absolutely best performance tonight would be 75 seats....55 is more likely. And while the Conservatives are polling well overall in Quebec, they're not consolidating the vote in many ridings. They will win at least 3, perhaps 8. But probably 3. They will do very well out here in the West, but not enough to get a majority.
And poltiically, the Conservatives are much more similar to the Democrats than the Republicans.
We also have 4 viable parties, all of whom hold seats. The social democratic NDP will almost certainly gain seats--especially in ON and BC. The Bloc Quebecois will probably finish where they are now (54 of 75), plus or minus a few seats.
Don't panic. Most of us aren't. Minority governments are often the best in terms of compromise. Starting tomorrow, 2 parties on the opposite ends of the political spectrum au Canada (NDP and Cons) will have to start playing nicely. Like adults even.
Which is good for Canada.
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no subject
Date: 2006-01-24 06:36 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-01-25 10:46 am (UTC)I suspect that Howard will still get in at the next election. Just think, there is a generation out there who knows no other government.