Eurovision 2006: My final semi-final prediction

[jawnbc]

OK we've had 2 days of rehearsals. We know the versions of the songs (often groups have a special mix for the live show), the staging, who can sing live, who can sell a song, whose performance looks like the dawg's breakfast. It's clear there are about half a dozen decent total packages--but only 10 slots.

The sure things:
Sweden and Bosnia will probably battle it out to win the semi; Belgium and Russia will perhaps rank lower due to performing much earlier in the draw. That's 4 of 10 slots.

The should be rights:
Ireland has come up with a much better mix and people who didn't know who Brian Kennedy is now certainly understand why so many of us were confident of his abilities. Iceland's late draw advantage might well be mitigated by some not getting the joke (it is a joke people, lighten up). That's 2 more slots, 6 of 10 so far.

The could bes:
Armenia is good and getting better; début countries tend to do well enough unless wholly dreadful and they're our only newbie. Turkey's song and singer are strong, but there are a few kinks left; ditto Poland. Slovenia's great but the draw sucks. Macedonia always seems to qualify no matter what...but she's not exactly a seasoned performer. Estonia's great but sandwiched between 2 heavy hitters: Sweden and Bosnia. So that's six acts and only 4 spots...which I think will mean no good for Macedonia (weakest of the performers live) and Poland (too much, despite being very polished).

The wild card:
And then there's Finland. Lordi's "monster rock" is strking to look at and well performed. But the song is a total snoozer. But this is nothing if not memorable. And at the Eurovision something totally memorable almost always gets a top 5 finish (always top 10).

Which sucks for Turkey I fear. Drop Sibel's Sertab redux in favour of Lordi's dog and pony show.

Just to be fun: my predicted ranking:
This is totally pulled out of me arse, but what the heck. Here's my prediction for the top 10 in order of finish.

1. Sweden
2. Russia
3. Bosnia
4. Belgium
5. Finland
6. Ireland
7. Slovenia
8. Iceland
9. Armenia
10. Estonia

Comments

[mynumber1.livejournal.com]

You keep ignoring Cyprus, annette will definately feature in the top ten.x

[jawnbc]

Sorry my love, it's a song about dead children and her frock is unbelievably hideous--lime green, tits 10m high.

Sorry baby, but it's roadkill...

[aadroma.livejournal.com]

I should hope not -- the melody's bad, she keeps overstressing everything, she's consistently offkey, and the even cheddar's not as cheesy as the song's lyrics. I'd love a strong ballad and a great singer from Cyprus, but this is neither ...

[aadroma.livejournal.com]

I STILL have hopes for Andorra, damn it. At least Jenny got the cold on SATURDAY and not during the show...

Jenny's dress

[seomra101.livejournal.com]

Reports are reaching me of Jenny's dress rehearsal ensemble.

Oh. Dear. God.

[mikeybill.livejournal.com]

When I lived in Istanbul a friend of mine and I used to have a little ritual of going to a shabby little pub in Aksaray (we went to several shabby pubs but for other reasons...) to watch the Eurovision contest. The Turks took it so seriously, I think you'd like it there Jawn. And it used to be tragi-comic as the Turks would often give the Greeks a reasonable score, and the the Greeks would give the Turks a smaller one, resulting in moans around the pub, all these hot hairy Kurdish building site workers with big moustaches (see why I stayed 8 years?) complaining that it just wasn't fair. Happy days.

I've never watched a contest since I left though - the viewing public here just isn't the same.

[jawnbc]

When I was in Istanbul I had to be very mindful not to lean towards all those lovely staches...OMFG!

No one here was into it a few years ago. I'll have 15 or so here mid-day on a sunny Saturday in Vancouver. Watching it streamed over the net...

[progbear.livejournal.com]

I’d definitely prefer to see Andorra and Albania (or maybe Turkey) instead of Armenia and Macedonia. I generally like to see the new kids do well, but I thought their tune was pretty poor. And unless we see an upswell of sympathy for the freshmen, I think their debut is going to be less like Poland’s and more like Malta’s.

Realistically, though, I think Albania does have a bit more of a chance, if their singer puts on a good performance. I’m crossing my fingers for Jenny, too, but I have no expectations. Sibel is more likely. I don’t like her tune as much, but it is nice. Other than that, your list looks a lot like mine.

Finland’s entry has a following for some bizarre reason. Are metal-heads that desperate for representation in the song contest that they don’t care how crappy the song is? If the Finns really wanted to go for the gimmicky metal thing, they could have added talent by getting Finntroll (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finntroll) instead. Does singing in Swedish count as a “gimmick”? (It sure didn’t help the Finns in 1990).

The good that could come out of this: Finland could finally land a spot in the Top 5, breaking the curse of “sixth place” and surpassing Marion Rung’s high score set way back in 1973. Say what you will about “Hard Rock Hallelujah”, I still think it’s a better song than “Tom Tom Tom”!

[jawnbc]

Jenny's tanked all the rehearsals so far. And Albania's song has no "ooomph". Anjeza's reworked version did.

[zurcherart.livejournal.com]

Lordi is the new Russlana.

[progbear.livejournal.com]

That’s funny. I thought they were the new Guildo Horn.

Silvia is definitely the new Schmetterlinge.