Eurovision final: predictions
May. 19th, 2006 05:45 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jawnbcOK. So I did my normal spreadsheet faux statistical analysis to predict tomorrow's result. It came up with four songs tied for first: Switzerland, UK, Croatia and Armenia. It had Germany and Macedonia next, followed by Russia, Romania, Bosnia, Sweden and Turkey, and then Ireland, Norway, Greece and Malta. Makes no sense to me, so I"m binning it.
Less than 24 hours from now we will have a new queen of the Eurovision. Who or may not be female. It's like that sometimes. But I'm having a devil of a time sorting out who the likely winner might be. For once almost all the qualifiers deserved to qualify, which makes for a talent-heavy final.
So I'm gonna segment my analyses this time: song, package (performance and appearance), and overall prediction. All lists are ranked from best downwards. *deep breath*
Best song:
1. Romania 13. Finland
2. Germany 14. Croatia
3. Russia 15. Isräel
4. Norway 16. Denmark
5. Sweden 17. Latvia
6. Armenia 18. UK
7. Bosnia 19. Ukraine
8.Malta 20. Moldova
9. Macedonia 21. Spain
10. Greece 22. Switzerland
11, Ireland 23. France
12. Turkey 24. Lithuania
Of these, I only rate the first 7 as excellent, and the next 8 good. The last 4 are dire.
Best package (performance and appearance):
1. Sweden 13. Macedonia
2. Finland 14. Isräel
3.Germany 15. Switzerland
4. Ireland 16. Ukraine
5. Russia 17. Turkey
6. Norway 18. Latvia
7. Croatia 19. Lithuania
8. Armenia 20. Denmark
9. Malta 21. Romania
10. UK 22. Spain
11, Greece 23. France
12. Bosnia 24. Moldova
Of these, the first 7 are excellent, but the next 10 are also very good. Only 2 dogs. :)
Overall:
1. Russia 13.UK
2. Germany 14. Ukraine
3.Sweden 15. Macedonia
4. Norway 16. Switzerland
5. Ireland 17. Turkey
6. Armenia 18. Latvia
7. Bosnia 19. Lithuania
8. Romania 20. Denmark
9. Malta 21. Isräel
10.Finland 22. Spain
11, Greece 23. France
12. Croatia 24. Moldova
Though I have a gnawing feeling that Moldova might surprise us all, or even Armenia. If Greece and Malta aren't in the top 10, no country will have qualified for the final more than 2years in a row.
This year I'm stumped. There's no obvious favourite, or even a shortlist. No real standouts. Bosnia is a rehash of Serbia 2004. Croatia's lyric apparently is offensive to some other ex-Yugos (her stilleto marching across Europe. Ahem!), Romania's rehearsals have been iffy and he's got that weird Eastern European palour. And Greece will almost certainly oversing it--the locals will love it and the rest of Europe will send her a chill pill (and a bucketful of 3s). Ireland's late draw could make it stand out more than in the semi. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
Less than 24 hours from now we will have a new queen of the Eurovision. Who or may not be female. It's like that sometimes. But I'm having a devil of a time sorting out who the likely winner might be. For once almost all the qualifiers deserved to qualify, which makes for a talent-heavy final.
So I'm gonna segment my analyses this time: song, package (performance and appearance), and overall prediction. All lists are ranked from best downwards. *deep breath*
Best song:
1. Romania 13. Finland
2. Germany 14. Croatia
3. Russia 15. Isräel
4. Norway 16. Denmark
5. Sweden 17. Latvia
6. Armenia 18. UK
7. Bosnia 19. Ukraine
8.Malta 20. Moldova
9. Macedonia 21. Spain
10. Greece 22. Switzerland
11, Ireland 23. France
12. Turkey 24. Lithuania
Of these, I only rate the first 7 as excellent, and the next 8 good. The last 4 are dire.
Best package (performance and appearance):
1. Sweden 13. Macedonia
2. Finland 14. Isräel
3.Germany 15. Switzerland
4. Ireland 16. Ukraine
5. Russia 17. Turkey
6. Norway 18. Latvia
7. Croatia 19. Lithuania
8. Armenia 20. Denmark
9. Malta 21. Romania
10. UK 22. Spain
11, Greece 23. France
12. Bosnia 24. Moldova
Of these, the first 7 are excellent, but the next 10 are also very good. Only 2 dogs. :)
Overall:
1. Russia 13.UK
2. Germany 14. Ukraine
3.Sweden 15. Macedonia
4. Norway 16. Switzerland
5. Ireland 17. Turkey
6. Armenia 18. Latvia
7. Bosnia 19. Lithuania
8. Romania 20. Denmark
9. Malta 21. Isräel
10.Finland 22. Spain
11, Greece 23. France
12. Croatia 24. Moldova
Though I have a gnawing feeling that Moldova might surprise us all, or even Armenia. If Greece and Malta aren't in the top 10, no country will have qualified for the final more than 2years in a row.
This year I'm stumped. There's no obvious favourite, or even a shortlist. No real standouts. Bosnia is a rehash of Serbia 2004. Croatia's lyric apparently is offensive to some other ex-Yugos (her stilleto marching across Europe. Ahem!), Romania's rehearsals have been iffy and he's got that weird Eastern European palour. And Greece will almost certainly oversing it--the locals will love it and the rest of Europe will send her a chill pill (and a bucketful of 3s). Ireland's late draw could make it stand out more than in the semi. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
