Eurovision final: predictions

[jawnbc]

OK. So I did my normal spreadsheet faux statistical analysis to predict tomorrow's result. It came up with four songs tied for first: Switzerland, UK, Croatia and Armenia. It had Germany and Macedonia next, followed by Russia, Romania, Bosnia, Sweden and Turkey, and then Ireland, Norway, Greece and Malta. Makes no sense to me, so I"m binning it.

Less than 24 hours from now we will have a new queen of the Eurovision. Who or may not be female. It's like that sometimes. But I'm having a devil of a time sorting out who the likely winner might be. For once almost all the qualifiers deserved to qualify, which makes for a talent-heavy final.

So I'm gonna segment my analyses this time: song, package (performance and appearance), and overall prediction. All lists are ranked from best downwards. *deep breath*

Best song:
1. Romania 13. Finland
2. Germany 14. Croatia
3. Russia 15. Isräel
4. Norway 16. Denmark
5. Sweden 17. Latvia
6. Armenia 18. UK
7. Bosnia 19. Ukraine
8.Malta 20. Moldova
9. Macedonia 21. Spain
10. Greece 22. Switzerland
11, Ireland 23. France
12. Turkey 24. Lithuania

Of these, I only rate the first 7 as excellent, and the next 8 good. The last 4 are dire.

Best package (performance and appearance):
1. Sweden 13. Macedonia
2. Finland 14. Isräel
3.Germany 15. Switzerland
4. Ireland 16. Ukraine
5. Russia 17. Turkey
6. Norway 18. Latvia
7. Croatia 19. Lithuania
8. Armenia 20. Denmark
9. Malta 21. Romania
10. UK 22. Spain
11, Greece 23. France
12. Bosnia 24. Moldova

Of these, the first 7 are excellent, but the next 10 are also very good. Only 2 dogs. :)

Overall:
1. Russia 13.UK
2. Germany 14. Ukraine
3.Sweden 15. Macedonia
4. Norway 16. Switzerland
5. Ireland 17. Turkey
6. Armenia 18. Latvia
7. Bosnia 19. Lithuania
8. Romania 20. Denmark
9. Malta 21. Isräel
10.Finland 22. Spain
11, Greece 23. France
12. Croatia 24. Moldova

Though I have a gnawing feeling that Moldova might surprise us all, or even Armenia. If Greece and Malta aren't in the top 10, no country will have qualified for the final more than 2years in a row.

This year I'm stumped. There's no obvious favourite, or even a shortlist. No real standouts. Bosnia is a rehash of Serbia 2004. Croatia's lyric apparently is offensive to some other ex-Yugos (her stilleto marching across Europe. Ahem!), Romania's rehearsals have been iffy and he's got that weird Eastern European palour. And Greece will almost certainly oversing it--the locals will love it and the rest of Europe will send her a chill pill (and a bucketful of 3s). Ireland's late draw could make it stand out more than in the semi. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Comments

[gfrancie.livejournal.com]

So where/how are you watching Eurovision?

[jawnbc]

It's streamed live over the web at noon tomorrow. Pop into eurovistion.tv today, and click on the New Videos Avaiable link.

It'll give you instructions on how to install the plug in. Dunno what it is or how it works but it gives great quality streaming video. I was able to watch the semi-final live yesterday through my telly--with very few dropped frames and good sound. (my laptop has S-video, so I could run the video out to my TV instead of the monitor)

[gfrancie.livejournal.com]

Ah okay. I will have to check that out.

[dclore.livejournal.com]

I don't know - I still think Greece could win it. Anna knows how to sell oversinging really well!

[ejo-muc.livejournal.com]

I was lazy this year in preparing myself for this year's contest. So I am happy to see that Texas Lightning is among the top 5. It's just such a nice song, sweet, light and without much "heckmeck" and "schnick schnack" - so perfect for the spring! so later I will go over to the heavily overpacked MORO (http://www.moro-munich.de/) to enjoy the screaming queens (both on the screen and in the audience ;-)
enjoy the show!

...looked up heckmeck and schnick schnack...they say "carry-on" ???? and "knick knack"

[mikeybill.livejournal.com]

No obvious favourite ?

FINLAND ! ! !

[progbear.livejournal.com]

My guess is that the top three will comprise Bosnia, Finland and Sweden in some configuration, with Germany and Romania rounding out the top five. Bosnia and Sweden both have excellent tunes by strong performers, and both tunes have strong followings. Finland’s tune is much weaker, just a poor rewrite of KISS’ “God Of Thunder” by someone with no gift for melody. But they Lordi has a very ardent and enthusiastic following, plus a memorable and fun stage presentation, and that’s going to show up in the voting. Romania has a superb tune, too and Germany’s entry is...cute and novel, and professionally presented.

Elsewhere, Denmark’s is cute and novel, too. I don’t think “cute and novel” will be enough for Sidsel, though. We’ll see. Turkey may surprise us (they did in the semi-final), and I expect Norway, Ireland and Russia to at least make top-ten placings. Possibly Armenia too, another one that surprised at the semi. As for Greece, I love Anna Vissi, but “Everything” is so not worthy of her. And I wish she’d left the peroxide in the medicine cabinet, but it’s too late for that now.

Most of the rest of the entries are just “meh”, save for the Lithuanian and British entries, which are absolutely execrable! (We were promised great revisions in the British National Final after the whole null-points debacle a couple of years back. Whatever happened to that?) The Swiss entry is basically warmed-over Wind (isn’t Ralph Siegel dead yet?)—it might have done well once upon a time, but it’s not the 80’s anymore.

N.P.: “Ritratto di Donna” by Mia Martini (her contribution to Yamaha’s World Popular Song Festival in 1977—it came second—and better than either of her Eurovision tunes)

[jawnbc]

I suspect that Lordi, like WigWam last year, got lots of support...but not nearly what many thought. The buzz after the semi was that Wigwam won it. They finished 5th or 6th, with Romania on top and Denmark second or third.

I hate to say it, but in terms of performance I thought Carola was tops. Bosnia is really Serbia 2004 deux, and I think that will hurt it outside the rebetika zone. Especially since the staging is so similar.

Just finishing my ballots and score cards for tomorrow's party! woo hoo!

[jamaisneutral.livejournal.com]

it's frustrating this year, isn't it? Well, I have to say I never had a clear favourite until after seeing the contest. I loved Beth in 2003, but seeing the contest I knew Sertab would win. Same for Ruslana and Helena Paparizou. But this year... In the semis I was very very impressed with the Ukraine, but it's basically the same as Ruslana. And it's cold in the Ukraine, do we really want to go back there? :)

[gfrancie.livejournal.com]

What the heck is with the Finns?????

[devilishous.livejournal.com]

Well, bet you couldn't have predicted this year's winner! My favourite was reading the article in the SMH today, with quotes from the Fins:

In Finland, young people on the streets of the capital Helsinki welcomed the news of the triumph enthusiastically.

"It's amazing that Finland has finally won something. Though I don't like Lordi myself, it's great! We don't win anything," said Mari Pelli, an 18-year-old childminder.

Groups of young people walked from bar to bar shouting the lyrics of the winning song at the tops of their voices.

"I'm very happy that they won. Eurovision is a show for entertainment, not for music," said Mikko Mattila, a 30-year-old student.

That's hilarious!

[jawnbc]

Finland has appeared 40 times (over 40 years) and this is there first win. I'm so pleased for them--woo hoo!

I think this is also good for the Contest. No regional voting affected the winning result, it's a unique song and performance (I love the ballads and schlager, but lots of folks don't tune because of the preponderence of B & S), and while they're kinda gimmicky they are an established band--they didn'tput on the masks just as a trick at Eurovision.

I think that just leaves Portugal of the countries that entered in the first 15 years who haven't won. And since no one last year would've expected Finland in '06 (their previous best was 6th place in the earlu 1970s), who knows? Portugal next year?

[devilishous.livejournal.com]

Also, just wanting to say I got your paper and will read it this week and get back to you.

G

[mikeybill.livejournal.com]

I hate to say I told you so - aw, no I fucking don't ;-)

Go Finland!

[jawnbc]

Yeah you did=--well done! A mate in Athens texted me and said "the new Ruslana"--meaning someone whose performance stood out so much (and for all the right reasons)--they simply had to win. I didn't like Ruslana when I was there, but now I get and appreciate her. I will to with Lordi I'm sure.

But my Brian squeaked into the top 10---woo hoo! And with a mediocre song!

oh, dude

[arkanjil.livejournal.com]

that's gotta hurt...

(as i sit here readinf backwards through three days of entries. Stay tuned...)