jawnbc | Canadian election: why I"m not worried....much

Canada will have its own federal election soon--before the US in fact, though it won't be officially "called" until tomorrow morning. And it'll all be over on 14 October (most likely date). We have strict spending limits on advertising and political contributions up here, so at least buying the election isn't possible. Many Canadians forget that one of the reasons the Liberal Party has been "the natural ruling party of Canada" is the buckets of corporate money it received until their donations were restricted. Oh, and their commitment to social justice is rather fluid (free votes on same-sex justice times 2 in the last decade or so).

Most Canadians I know eschew labels like "left" or "right". They are inclined to talk about fairness, common sense, peace, and justice. Which is why even our Conservative party (a centre-right party close to the Democrats in the States. No, really) even has its significant socially progressive wing. Or libertarian anyway. All of whom like making money before pretty much anything else.

But I digress.

Currently the composition of our (minority government) House of Commons is:

Tories (Cons.) 127
Liberals 95
Bloc Québec ` 48
NDP 30
Green 1
Independent 0
[vacant 4]

There will be a number of polls released between now and the day before the vote (when a polling blackout is the law). If/When the Tories get close to 40% the media will warn of "majority territory," that is, close to getting 155 seats for control of the house. Our last 2 Parliaments have been minorities, thought the Liberals held the most seats back then. The Tories need a net gain of 18 seats for a majority.

But Canadian elections aren't won nationally--they're won regionally: Atlantic Canada, Québec, Ontario, Western Canada (the North has 3 seats in total; rarely a factor). One has to follow polling regionally--usually provincially, sometimes down to the individual seats/ridings--to get a true sense of what's in the cards.

In 2006 a late surge in support for the Tories in Québec led to the pickup of 10 seats--from zero. They picked up a number in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and perhaps 2 in Western Canada. But they didn't win any seats in any of the metropolitan centres: Montréal, Toronto, or Vancouver. In Toronto they barely made a dent in the suburbs. And developments since then will impact most of the regions, mostly negatively.

Atlantic Canada: The Tory Premier of Newfounland, Danny Williams, fought tooth and nail with the federal Tories over revenue sharing. Williams, who is wildly popular, is encouraging his supports to vote for anyone but the Tories in the federal election. Many Tory supporters in Nova Scotia are still angry about how Bill Casey was treated by his caucus. LIke Danny Williams, Casey felt the Tories had broken promises around revenue sharing, so he voted againt the party's budget in Parliament. Prince Edward Island's 4 seats rarely change hands from the Liberals. New Brunswick has 3 seats in play, 2 Liberal and 1 Tory. So not much impact there either.

Bottom line: not much room for growth; a number of ways the Tories could lose seats overall in the region. I predict Tories lose 3

Québec: After their surprising 11 seat pickup in 2006, the Tories have gone up and down in the province since. Currently they're up about 10% province-wide over their 2006 numbers. But Québec is really a province of regions. Much of rural Québec is solid Bloc territory (30? 35 seats?). Québec City is where all but 1 of the seats came in 2006--and there ain't another 18 to pick up there. Montréal is a mix: poorer areas tend to go Bloc, anglophone Liberal. But with the Tories doing better--and the NDP, surprisingly--there are now a number of "safe" seats in play. Some where safe Liberals seats; other Bloc. But all of those ridings could be very close, and a split between the pan-Canadian parties (Lib and Tory, but also NDP and Green) could favour the Bloc. But Québec is also a region where electoral fortunes change by day sometimes.

Bottom line: Perhaps a Tory pick-up of 10. Or a net loss of a couple.

Ontario: Toronto is Liberal or NDP. Industrial areas are similarly split. The rest of the province is a bit of everything, but very little NDP. There are probably close to 40 seats in play in Ontario., but the Liberals still lead the Tories in Ontario by 10 points. Despite having a leader (Stéphane Dion) who is less than inspiring. Finally, federal Tory Finance Minister Jim Flaherty (himself from ON), decided to pick a fight with the provincial Liberal government, criticizing the Lib's financial policies. Many Ontarians were entirely unimpressed, if not entirely pissed off.

Bottom line: Tories would have to pick up half the seats up for grabs and keep all their seats. I predict they'll end up almost exactly where they started.

Western Canada: The Tories have every seat in Alberta and all but 1 in Saskatchewan: little room for growth there, and a couple of the SK races were close 2- or 3-way ones.

Manitoba currently has 8 Tory, 3 NDP and 3 Liberal. One of the Liberal seats is Churchill, an NDP stronghold the Libs won due to vote splitting (NDP sitting member booted from caucuse for voting against same-sex marriage split the vote with the new NDP candidate). The NDP seats should all be safe (can't say that always). Winnipeg South is up for grabs; so is St Boniface. Otherwise, it's same old

BC is a wildcard. In the 2006 BC was the only province to reduce its Tory seats. One seat is held by a Liberal who switched to the Tories within days of being elected as a Lib; even if he (Emerson, Vancouver Kingsway) isn't running again, the riding has always been a battle ground for the Libs and NDP. That's another seat down. Vancouver Quadra was held onto in a by-election earlier this year by less than 200 votes....but by-elections' low voter turnout makes them unreliable predictors. The Green in West Van/S2S/SC was a Liberal who left caucus due to scandal, was exonerate, but not allowed back in. It was a close election between the Libs and Tories anyway, but this will go Tory.

But there are about a dozen seats on Vancouver island and East and South of Vancouver that have the potential for 3 way vote splitting again. Currently the Liberals are polling 3rd behind the Tories and NDP here in BC--but a lot of that Liberal vote is consolidated in the City of Vancouver's 5 seats (4 are Liberal; 1 NDP). Of that dozen 6 are Tory, 3 NDP, 3 Liberal. The Tories would have to hold them all, pick up the others, and pickup even more.

Bottom line: BC votes are snarky. Aside from 20% core consituents for each party, people use federal elections to give Ottawa The Finger. But Tories could end up +5

There is scope for the Tories to end up a bit ahead of where they are now. Or down. At the leader's debates (which I hope Elizabeth May gets to participate in as Green leader), the NDP's Layton and Bloc's Duceppe will attack Harper plenty; all Dion needs to do for the Liberals is stay on message and not speak in mangled English. We could get a bigger or smaller Tory minority, or a Liberal minority. Unless something shocking happens.

And we're running our election parallel to the States, which will perhaps highlight even more th difference between left and right.