idiot savant's prediction for semi-final two qualifier

[jawnbc]

 It's time for my annual exercise in social semi-science. As in previous years, I've tried to quantify different aspects of an entry that can impact its prospects. These include:

• Draw order (up to 2 points)
• Performance quality (up to 3)
• Region for neighbourly support (up to 3)
• Song type (up to 4, but rarely higher than 2)
• Ethnic diaspora vote (up to 2)
• Schtick or gimmick (up to 1)

So the highest total possible score is 15. Highest this year is a very strong 14--but only 11 in this semi. This is a much tougher semi, with few stand-outs; see below:




Should qualify easily:  Latvia, Serbia, Albania, Moldova, Ukraine, Norway, Azerbaijan (8 of 10 spots)

On the cusp: Greece, Lithuania (!), Netherlands

Pick 1: Greece

Jury pick for 10th qualifier if needed: Netherlands or Lithuania

Comments

[gav-and-rog.livejournal.com]

what? No Hungary or Greece?? Perhaps Lithuania will help Greece this year as the song has gone into their music charts so it must be a little popular. I like the Hungary song and I think we'll get a polished performance but probably there's be no "wow" to remember the song with in amongst others. A shame really.

[jawnbc]

The draw doesn't help Hungary. And you're right: there's nothing wrong with it, but it's also not a standout song.

I like Greece, but Sakis isn't a great singer, and unless the Azeri dude does stoopid stuff (like in the preview video), the contrast will be striking. I think Sakis might be this year's Selma...except he's got Balkan block votes behind him.

[northbuckschris.livejournal.com]

I think the Azerbaijan/Greece draw order in this semi is fascinating. When I played both songs to Mrs P (who had just one ear open) she thought I'd played the same song twice. Sakis isn't a great singer but he does have presence - and if I remember rightly the Azeri duo sang pretty lousily at the Russian NF. I think only one of the two will go through.