jawnbc | Irish Presidential debate on RTÉ

Caught the first (ever!) debate amongst the candidates for President of Ireland. There are 7 candidates, a record slate, for the election in 4 weeks time. Here are my thoughts:

Séan Gallagher (IND): Apparently Ireland has caught the "rich businessman tries to queue jump directly to executive office" illness. Granted Gallagher also has a strong community background--but he also has strong ties to Fianna Fáil, the "natural ruling party" recently bounced out of office for bankrupting Ireland. He said few interesting things, though his stance that he didn't know enough to judge whether gay couples should be able to adopt is, methinks, telling. No hoper...I hope. He also equivocated on whether the confessional should be broken when child abuse is confessed--that should kill his candidacy.

Dana Rosemary Scallon (IND): Yes, Dana of the Eurovision is running. Again. She came off surprisingly well and her eurosceptic (EU, not Eurovision) stance will get a surprising amount of traction. She proferred the pocket version of the Irish Constitution on a number of occasions. I suspect there's a hunger right now for someone who challenges the idea of a federal EU. And I suspect Dana's locked that vote up.

Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael): with their curent leader as Taioséach (Prime Minister)--a very popular one, in fact--you'd think this guy would be in a strong position to win. But tonight he displayed perhaps why he probably won't: he comes across as a nice, earnest man. One you might not disagree with on much, but also not one that inspires you to let them lead you.

Mary Davis (IND): Mary's building her campaign on her career with Special Olympics. Comes across well in many respects; but her passion doesn't come across very much. Strange. She has high name recognition though, thanks to Ireland hosting the Special Summer Olympics a few years back. If Ireland gets its third woman President this time, she's more likely than Dana. More likely isn't very likely though.

David Norris (IND): There are two "gays" in this campaign; this is the homosexual one. David Norris's lectureship in Joyce's literature gives him a stentorian gravitas that suits a high profile ceremonial office. He's also got pluck, which is very Irish. But he's been the face of gay rights in Ireland for 30 years, has an Anglo-Irish accent (and the only non-Catholic in the race), either of which might make him something of a reach for your average Tipperary farmer to support. But he's a character and an eloquent one. No one's polled higher than him to-date, but that means nothing in an actual Presidential election in Ireland: the front runner often fades. He came across very well tonight though.

Michael D Higgins (Labour): After tonight I would say Higgins is the front runner though. Gravitas, a subtly and wry sense of humour, eloquent, the only person to use Irish in the debate, and something of your local's favourite storyteller in his countenance. Came across well as "your man's defender."

Martin McGuiness (Sinn Féin): Having refused to attended the state dinner when the British monarch came to Ireland this year sinked McGuiness. His answers were evasive--an IRA man needs to be evasive--and his "I represent the working people" shtick was trumped by Higgins. Not a chance, thank Gawd.

Summing up
Best answer of the night goes to Norris: when candidates were asked what the most important legislation of the last 30 years was he offered the bank bailout. Both he and Higgins voted against it, which positions both well. Dana's only been in public office once (MEP a decade ago) and isn't seen as having achieved much. She rightly called out Ryan Tubridy for positioning her as "the Church's mouthpiece."

Speaking of Turbridy, he went from interviewer to twat frequently: one good question, one tabloid one. No one took the bait, even as he fairly bashed them over the head with it. Why he got the Late Late Show escapes me: he's certainly no Gay Byrne, not even a Pat Kenny. Too coarse: either of them could charm answers to tough questions out of people.

McGuiness, Mitchell, Gallagher and Dana all have too narrow constituencies and some sort of baggage to keep them from going very far--unless several candidates drop out before the actual election. I think this election will come down to Higgins and Norris, both of whom came across much more statesmanlike than any of the other candidates.

End Game
The Irish Presidential election will be held on 27 October. It's an alternate vote poll, with voters ranking candidates in order of preference. This means there's a lot of scope for swings as candidates drop off the bottom on each count. In 1990 Mary Robinson was second after the first count, but still won. In the only other election with more than 4 candidates Dana polled 14%, Mary Banottie of Fine Gael 29% and Mary McAleese (Fianna Fáil) 45%--the other two candidates got 5 and 7% on the first ballot. Expect this one to be much more spread out. Norris' polling number in the mid-30s has scrubbed down to the low 20s as more candidates enter the field.