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jawnbcAs I did last year, I’ve handicapped this year’s ESC semi-final. Being a wanker sociologist, I’ve used an Excel spread sheet, some wholly subjective assessments, and a gander at previous years’ contests. Five criteria were used:
- Performance (as in the singer’s ability to sing well and compellingly live) 0-3 points
- Region (and if there’s a likelihood of “neighbourly support” during the televote) 0-4 points, depending on # of neighbours voting
- Song type (one point each for dance, uptempo, ethnic, unique) 0-4 points
- Order (very late, or kinda early, but not before or after the breaks) 0-2 points
- Ethnic (not the same as region: applies if the country has large ex-pat communities that will vote in blocks) 0-2
Here’s a capture of the spread sheet: feel free to question anything in the comments and I”ll explain:
So, for example, an OK song Croatia gets a good shot at the final because of its geographics and lucking out with a late (20 of 25) slot. And a really great song and performer like Netherlands, with a crappy draw and being a power ballad, doesn’t seem to have a great chance.
Should easily Qualify: Macedonia, Switzerland, Denmark, Romania, Iceland, Croatia
Could squeak through: Belarus, Norway, Hungary, Poland, Israel, Ireland (though I think Poland and Ireland are very weak and will drop)
Wild cards: Netherlands, maybe Portugal or Belgium because they’re really, really great singers with OK songs (bad news for Norway and Belarus)
And FYI I was 8 for 10 last year :)
- Performance (as in the singer’s ability to sing well and compellingly live) 0-3 points
- Region (and if there’s a likelihood of “neighbourly support” during the televote) 0-4 points, depending on # of neighbours voting
- Song type (one point each for dance, uptempo, ethnic, unique) 0-4 points
- Order (very late, or kinda early, but not before or after the breaks) 0-2 points
- Ethnic (not the same as region: applies if the country has large ex-pat communities that will vote in blocks) 0-2
Here’s a capture of the spread sheet: feel free to question anything in the comments and I”ll explain:
So, for example, an OK song Croatia gets a good shot at the final because of its geographics and lucking out with a late (20 of 25) slot. And a really great song and performer like Netherlands, with a crappy draw and being a power ballad, doesn’t seem to have a great chance.
Should easily Qualify: Macedonia, Switzerland, Denmark, Romania, Iceland, Croatia
Could squeak through: Belarus, Norway, Hungary, Poland, Israel, Ireland (though I think Poland and Ireland are very weak and will drop)
Wild cards: Netherlands, maybe Portugal or Belgium because they’re really, really great singers with OK songs (bad news for Norway and Belarus)
And FYI I was 8 for 10 last year :)
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Date: 2005-04-01 10:29 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 10:31 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 11:54 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 12:29 pm (UTC)Besides I think they'll pretty much shave and colour Joe and Donna by 19 May.
Last year I got the same thing for Croatia and figured there was no way they'd qualify--so I adjusted it. And they did, dag nabbit! So I'm going with it as is this year. The big difference is adding a category for ex-pat communities. It certainly helps Greece, Turkey, Israel (with France) and other diasporic communities.
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Date: 2005-04-01 02:08 pm (UTC)I assume that Herr Wachter, our producer, looked at the voting trends in Switzerland (heavily eastward leaning I assume from the aforementioned ex-pat community) when he hired the Ninjas and hoped for some reverse synergy (among other things).
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Date: 2005-04-01 12:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 11:48 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 12:29 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 01:52 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-04-01 11:10 pm (UTC):(
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Date: 2005-04-02 12:25 pm (UTC)