Eurovision 2006: my prediction for the semi-final

[jawnbc]

Well we know the draws, we’ve had access to preview videos and mp3s galore--including a number posted by fans showing live performances from national finals--so it’s time for my annual analysis/prediction for the Semi-Final of the 51st Eurovision Song Contest. The Semi takes place on Thursday 18 May in Athens; from among 23 songs competing, 10 will join the 14 already qualifed for the Final on Saturday 20 May. And it’s interesting to note that we don’t have a “let’s have peace and love and joy/war sucks” song. Ireland’s “Every Song is a Cry for Love” is the closest thing, but not methinks closest enough to garner that vote.

Methodology
From my experience, a range of factors can predict the likelihood of a performance doing well at The Eurovision. I’ve used wholly subjective (me, me, it’s all about me) criteria to quantify a range of factors:

Performance: Based on press coverage and available media (video and/or audio) of live performances by the artist. Points range from 0 to 3, 3 being a high calibre performer. It also includes the ability to sing the song in question: so many very good singers have been stuffed up by trying to sing out of their vocal range.

Region: Regional voting doesn’t win the Contest, but it can make the difference between doing well versus very well, or so-so versus well. Regional voting patterns more often are about knowing the artists/songs and not merely from geopolitics. Points are 0 to 4, though scores never go above 2. Regions are: former Eastern Block, Balkans, Scandanavia, Greece/Cyprus, Big 4, anglophone, francophone, and German speaking.

Song type: I love ballads, prefer them actually. But a thumping pop beat seems to help a lot, though it isn’t only about the genre of the music: an unique song also stands out. Songs therefore get a point each if they are uptempo, a dance track, a schlager anthem, a ballad, unique, or ethnic. One could get 6 points, but the range generally is 0 to 4.

Order of draw: When you perform can make a difference--but not always in the obvious ways. I’ve stratified the points to give the Opening (#1) and the final 5 (this year songs 19-23) a max of 2 points. Drawing the second to last 5 (14 to 18) or slots 2, 7 to10 get a point--the rest are SOL. If you end up in the graveyard (slots 7 to 13), you’d better be incredible. Like Ruslana was in 2004.

Ethnic diaspora: Does your country (or a constituent cultural community in your country) have a strong presence in another ESC-participating country? If so, they can bring your points up a bit. These can include Irish, Albanians, Greeks, Portuguese, Catalans, Swedes, Finns, Danes, Icelanders, Russians, Poles...you get the idea. However, I don’t think it likely that an entry’s score will be affected too much, so the maximum score is 2.

Aw: You know, they’re adorable! Charming! Grandma and your 8 year-old niece equally love them. Possible 1 point.

Here we go, in order of draw....
Will qualify: Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland, Russia, Turkey

Should qualify: Sweden, Estonia, Poland, Belgium

Marginal: Slovenia, Ireland, Portugal

Wild card: Finland’s deathmetal Hard Rock Hallelujah, which will either romp or bomb. I hope it bombs...sorry.

My adjustment based on hunch: Drop either Belgium or Estonia (all are Swedish archetypal Melodifestivalen songs...as is Sweden); bring up Ireland and Portugal.

Finalists will be: Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland, Russia, Turkey, Sweden, Estonia, Poland, Ireland, Slovenia.

Comments

[aadroma.livejournal.com]

Sigh, that gives so little hope for my beloved Andorran entry. ;_;

I'm waiting to see see how Russia and Armenia perform live before I make any rash judgements, but I can see them easily coming out of the semi-final.

I think you need another category -- the "Oh no they di'n't!" factor, which I think Iceland will have in spades. ^^;;;;

[jawnbc]

:)

At one point I gave Iceland the aw vote--more an "oh moy gawd" vote--but decided to work within my limits. But she sure got marks for being unique....

[aadroma.livejournal.com]

Yeah, but ... erm, honey? Within the realms of this contest Lithuania and Finland are "unique" too. ^^;;;;

[jawnbc]

if Iceland weren't there, I'd agree about Lithuania. But now? Not so much...

[aadroma.livejournal.com]

Oh I'm not saying "unique" as a synonym for "improved chances" -- I'm just saying that these are all three completely different entries -- with no indication on "good" or "bad". ^^;;;

[mynumber1.livejournal.com]

cyprus is a definately a finalist. Annete will do a wonderful performance based on her fame story performances. Her range is out of this world.

[jawnbc]

OMG!!!! Maaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrko!!!!!!!!!

[jawnbc]

Click here to see Annett'e atrocious performance in the Cypriot final (and the dress? Ew!).

Click here to see Iceland's amazing video!.

[aadroma.livejournal.com]

Her performance left a lot to be desired in the NF, and one friend described her attempt to be a diva as something more akin to her "being stabbed".

And the song is schmaltzy beyond belief, not helping matters any -- I have a hard time respecting a song that uses the lyric, "Innocent children die." ^^;;;;

[mikeybill.livejournal.com]

Ahh, the happy memories of watching Eurovision when I lived in Istanbul. Two friends of mine and I would regularly go to the same little beerhouse in Aksaray, and sit there all night watching it.

The Turks would always take it so seriously, and get so grumpy when they didn't win, or even get decent points. Ahh, happy days.

[theloa.livejournal.com]

I'm still not sold on the idea that Iceland will make the semi-final. And I think Finland will actually do better.

[theloa.livejournal.com]

Meaning the final obviously.

Just woke up here...

[bloodred-snow.livejournal.com]

Same here. I mean, it'd just be WEIRD if that's the one that will do good. Damn it, kill me if it does. lol. She really, really bugs me. :( I think we've had better songs than this one, but people's choice in music and stuff, is just weird at times.

[theloa.livejournal.com]

I actually do like it. And it does have what most Icelandic songs have lacked up until now - showmanship (saving Páll Óskar and, maybe, Selma in 2000.) With 22 songs fighting for attention that is a crucial factor that us Icelanders haven't paid too much attention to in the past.

It just doesn't bode well that every person who experiences the phenomenon that is Silvía Nótt needs to be told that it's all a big joke.

[bloodred-snow.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I know we need the big showy number and all, but yes, you'll have to explain it everybody.

[jamaisneutral.livejournal.com]

I doubt I've ever seen a more scientific approach to final predictions :-). There's also always a "I cannot believe people actually like this shit"-moment... like when "the wur is not over, everyone knowsh it" got to the final. Though I guess that falls in the "aw" category...

[jawnbc]

Definately got the "aw" points. But, more importantly, the "let’s have peace and love and joy/war sucks” song. Like Ich Troje in 2003.

[quirkstreet.livejournal.com]

Is this that basketball thingie that everyone but me is into right now?

[chen-tokuryu.livejournal.com]

Thanks for this interesting article. I'm surprised to see "methodology" and "Eurovision" go together, but I think the variables that you're using are very apt.

In regards to the Finnish entry, I thought the group and song was a mix between Rob Zombie in vocals and GWAR with their costumes, and I have a soft spot for GWAR (which is odd, considering my musical tastes.

Oh well, rawk on! \m/

Iceland

[seomra101.livejournal.com]

I frikking love Sylvia Night. More than I love Selma but less than I love Bjork. I think Sylvia is a sure bet for the final.

Re: Iceland

[tumannyi-ejik.livejournal.com]

I liked selma very much last year. She really deserved the first place. Though i don't know the music of Iceland( besides Bjork) I think it's very nice. And you can really win!

[tumannyi-ejik.livejournal.com]

And which song did you like most of all?

[jawnbc]

Like? Iceland!