jawnbc | Eurovision 2006: my prediction for the semi-final

Well we know the draws, we’ve had access to preview videos and mp3s galore--including a number posted by fans showing live performances from national finals--so it’s time for my annual analysis/prediction for the Semi-Final of the 51st Eurovision Song Contest. The Semi takes place on Thursday 18 May in Athens; from among 23 songs competing, 10 will join the 14 already qualifed for the Final on Saturday 20 May. And it’s interesting to note that we don’t have a “let’s have peace and love and joy/war sucks” song. Ireland’s “Every Song is a Cry for Love” is the closest thing, but not methinks closest enough to garner that vote.

Methodology
From my experience, a range of factors can predict the likelihood of a performance doing well at The Eurovision. I’ve used wholly subjective (me, me, it’s all about me) criteria to quantify a range of factors:

Performance: Based on press coverage and available media (video and/or audio) of live performances by the artist. Points range from 0 to 3, 3 being a high calibre performer. It also includes the ability to sing the song in question: so many very good singers have been stuffed up by trying to sing out of their vocal range.

Region: Regional voting doesn’t win the Contest, but it can make the difference between doing well versus very well, or so-so versus well. Regional voting patterns more often are about knowing the artists/songs and not merely from geopolitics. Points are 0 to 4, though scores never go above 2. Regions are: former Eastern Block, Balkans, Scandanavia, Greece/Cyprus, Big 4, anglophone, francophone, and German speaking.

Song type: I love ballads, prefer them actually. But a thumping pop beat seems to help a lot, though it isn’t only about the genre of the music: an unique song also stands out. Songs therefore get a point each if they are uptempo, a dance track, a schlager anthem, a ballad, unique, or ethnic. One could get 6 points, but the range generally is 0 to 4.

Order of draw: When you perform can make a difference--but not always in the obvious ways. I’ve stratified the points to give the Opening (#1) and the final 5 (this year songs 19-23) a max of 2 points. Drawing the second to last 5 (14 to 18) or slots 2, 7 to10 get a point--the rest are SOL. If you end up in the graveyard (slots 7 to 13), you’d better be incredible. Like Ruslana was in 2004.

Ethnic diaspora: Does your country (or a constituent cultural community in your country) have a strong presence in another ESC-participating country? If so, they can bring your points up a bit. These can include Irish, Albanians, Greeks, Portuguese, Catalans, Swedes, Finns, Danes, Icelanders, Russians, Poles...you get the idea. However, I don’t think it likely that an entry’s score will be affected too much, so the maximum score is 2.

Aw: You know, they’re adorable! Charming! Grandma and your 8 year-old niece equally love them. Possible 1 point.

Here we go, in order of draw....
Will qualify: Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland, Russia, Turkey

Should qualify: Sweden, Estonia, Poland, Belgium

Marginal: Slovenia, Ireland, Portugal

Wild card: Finland’s deathmetal Hard Rock Hallelujah, which will either romp or bomb. I hope it bombs...sorry.

My adjustment based on hunch: Drop either Belgium or Estonia (all are Swedish archetypal Melodifestivalen songs...as is Sweden); bring up Ireland and Portugal.

Finalists will be: Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland, Russia, Turkey, Sweden, Estonia, Poland, Ireland, Slovenia.