democracy matters
Apr. 28th, 2011 09:50 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jawnbc Our friends south, west and east of our shores might not be aware that Canada is wrapping up a parliamentary election. An election at the start of which most pundits--and political junkies--expected to change little in terms of the seat distribution in our 308 seat Parliament.
Except it's turning out to be one of historic proportions.
in our system political parties endeavour for a majority: 155 (50% +1) seats or more, which gives that party's government almost absolute power. Canadians have not given any party a majority since 2004: we had a Liberal minority for 2 years and a Conservative minority for the past 5 years. In minority parliaments the assumption is that the party with a plurality of seats governs, so long as it gets enough support from at least one opposition party. The Conservatives, however, have instead sown the seeds of division: demonizing the other parties, using brinkmanship and manouevring, and flouting the conventions--and, allegedly--the rules of our political system. All the while spending millions of dollars assassinating the character of whomever leads their traditional rival the Liberal Party.
Rather effectively...perhaps too effectively. Because now, for the first time, Canada's third national party--the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) have passed the Liberals in polls. Currently the Tories (Conservatives) are running 5-8% ahead of the NDP, with the Grits (Liberals) running another 4-6% farther back. Which tells only part of the story...
...because it's regionally and locally where national elections are won in a parliamentary democracy. Right now the NDP is leading in Québec--the first "federalist" party to do so in many years. The provincial separatist Bloc Québécois's support has fallen by about half, with most of that going to the NDP. Add in a bit from the Grits and there's scope now for the NDP to win 15-50 seats in Québec. Currently they hold ONE.
In the Prairies the NDP might only pick up a couple of seats, but (at least) one will be in the province of Saskatchewan--which hasn't sent an NDP MP since 2004. In Atlantic Canada there's a tight 3 way race...but a seat-by-seat analysis shows there's little scope for the Tories to add seats and several they could lose. Here in BC there's always around 10 ridings that could go to any of the three parties--and the Liberal vote is collapsing, which often favours the NDP. Only Ontario hasn't shown a dramatic uptick for the NDP--though their 17 Ontario MPs when the election was called is the most the NDP has ever had.
The NDP is often derided for being too "left" for many Canadians. But there's something happening out there. I think there's a few factors at play:
The math on Tuesday morning will be very important. The Tories have already said if they win the most seats they will resubmit their budget from the last parliament. If they don't have a majority, it's likely the other parties will reject it. Which means either a new election...or the party with the second most seats could be asked to try and form a government. If the combined seats between the NDP and Liberals is 155 or more seats, there's reason to believe that they could work out an arrangement, if not a formal coalition.
Which means, almost certainly, that electoral reform will become a priority: it's a core part of NDP policy and a recently denuded Liberal party will now be more open to the possibility.
A reformed electoral system would mean parties would have to learn to cooperate. Everybody wins.
Oh, and if you're Canadian and don't vote on Monday (or in advance), please shut the fuck up until the next election. People who don't vote are lame. If you don't think so, ask an Algerian or Tunisian or Egyptian or Moldovan or....
Except it's turning out to be one of historic proportions.
in our system political parties endeavour for a majority: 155 (50% +1) seats or more, which gives that party's government almost absolute power. Canadians have not given any party a majority since 2004: we had a Liberal minority for 2 years and a Conservative minority for the past 5 years. In minority parliaments the assumption is that the party with a plurality of seats governs, so long as it gets enough support from at least one opposition party. The Conservatives, however, have instead sown the seeds of division: demonizing the other parties, using brinkmanship and manouevring, and flouting the conventions--and, allegedly--the rules of our political system. All the while spending millions of dollars assassinating the character of whomever leads their traditional rival the Liberal Party.
Rather effectively...perhaps too effectively. Because now, for the first time, Canada's third national party--the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) have passed the Liberals in polls. Currently the Tories (Conservatives) are running 5-8% ahead of the NDP, with the Grits (Liberals) running another 4-6% farther back. Which tells only part of the story...
...because it's regionally and locally where national elections are won in a parliamentary democracy. Right now the NDP is leading in Québec--the first "federalist" party to do so in many years. The provincial separatist Bloc Québécois's support has fallen by about half, with most of that going to the NDP. Add in a bit from the Grits and there's scope now for the NDP to win 15-50 seats in Québec. Currently they hold ONE.
In the Prairies the NDP might only pick up a couple of seats, but (at least) one will be in the province of Saskatchewan--which hasn't sent an NDP MP since 2004. In Atlantic Canada there's a tight 3 way race...but a seat-by-seat analysis shows there's little scope for the Tories to add seats and several they could lose. Here in BC there's always around 10 ridings that could go to any of the three parties--and the Liberal vote is collapsing, which often favours the NDP. Only Ontario hasn't shown a dramatic uptick for the NDP--though their 17 Ontario MPs when the election was called is the most the NDP has ever had.
The NDP is often derided for being too "left" for many Canadians. But there's something happening out there. I think there's a few factors at play:
- Québec is the province with more social democratic voters. Their votes have traditionally been split between the Liberals and the Bloc, depending on a voter's interest in Québec independence. After 20 years of Bloc MPs, the charmingly bilingual Jack Layton has, over the last 4 election cycles, positioned himself and his party as an alternative.
- Tory Prime Minister Harper's always left some people hot or cold; his politics of division has exacerbated this
- The Liberals have either voted with the Tories or skipped votes when they disagreed with them too often these last 5 years, undermining their credibility as an opposition--if you can't do the opposition job, why would folks trust you with governing?
- Layton and the NDP have focused on positive messages and everyone--even many thug Tories--agree he is an honourable, good guy
The math on Tuesday morning will be very important. The Tories have already said if they win the most seats they will resubmit their budget from the last parliament. If they don't have a majority, it's likely the other parties will reject it. Which means either a new election...or the party with the second most seats could be asked to try and form a government. If the combined seats between the NDP and Liberals is 155 or more seats, there's reason to believe that they could work out an arrangement, if not a formal coalition.
Which means, almost certainly, that electoral reform will become a priority: it's a core part of NDP policy and a recently denuded Liberal party will now be more open to the possibility.
A reformed electoral system would mean parties would have to learn to cooperate. Everybody wins.
Oh, and if you're Canadian and don't vote on Monday (or in advance), please shut the fuck up until the next election. People who don't vote are lame. If you don't think so, ask an Algerian or Tunisian or Egyptian or Moldovan or....
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no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:08 am (UTC)Nothing appears to be too low for them.
If policies don't work then character assassination surely will.
I watch with amazement to continual attacks on Obama, although they are careful to avoid the r-word.
I so agree
Date: 2011-04-29 06:12 am (UTC)So fed up with them and their ilk....cast them out the lot of them...
Re: I so agree
Date: 2011-04-29 05:14 pm (UTC)Even if he gets more seats, if the combined NDP/Liberal vote is 155+ I expect both parties will bring him down on ethics.
Reports today claim the Liberal vote is collapsing out here, which means the anti-Harper vote should go to the NDP, who are within 2 points of the Tories out here....
What times, what times we live in.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:25 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 03:26 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:41 am (UTC)I wouldn't be suprised if he is booted after the election. Same with the Tories if Harper doesn't win the a majority.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:14 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 01:12 pm (UTC)Doubt it - the Cons and BQ aren't at all interested in any sort of reform that would prevent a majority (Cons) or reduce their representation (BQ). Even if something is put forward, they'll be idiotic enough to have a referendum on it and it will fail. Just like the AV vote in the UK will most likely fail.
Threehundredeight.com still has NDP in 3rd overall, almost 30 seats back of the Libs. NDP support might be rising but i think the reality will be that it will just split the "progressive" vote and let Cons win seats - the way the Libs used to benefit from vote splitting on the right. Might be wrong, but can't shake that feeling.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 03:28 pm (UTC)I share your concern in some parts of the country, but the Tories really need to pick up 20 more seats to balance some they will also lose, if a majority is to happen. There's nowhere that's likely--and only in Ontario is it possible.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 04:19 pm (UTC)Layton is making hay with all of this, including a 1200 person rally at L'Olympia on Saturday, just down the street from Duceppe's campaign office. Duceppe is not just dealing with a clearly unplanned-for NDP ascendancy, but also he's been head of the Bloc for a long time, he and everyone else is tired. In the last 2 elections, Duceppe received a plurality of votes, but that plurality seems to be slowly shrinking, with the NDP gaining in each election (the Conservatives don't seem to be running a candidate against Duceppe this time around).
I hope electoral reform does become a priority, as you say, since the Bloc benefits greatly from the system in place now.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:15 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:17 pm (UTC)Sarah Palin is Preston Manning in drag.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:09 pm (UTC)As a political person from a political family, I am very interested, and I've been dragging my boyfriend's family out to vote. Hopefully it has some effect. Layton has balls, and if Canada is to throw of the yolk of corporate America, we need a leader with balls. That's all I have to say about him.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:17 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:55 pm (UTC)Would if I could. I've been a non-resident for more than five years, so apparently I don't count as far as Elections Canada is concerned.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 11:33 pm (UTC)All I can say is that I'm no fan of bipartisan systems, so I hope this new development works out.