democracy matters
Apr. 28th, 2011 09:50 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jawnbc Our friends south, west and east of our shores might not be aware that Canada is wrapping up a parliamentary election. An election at the start of which most pundits--and political junkies--expected to change little in terms of the seat distribution in our 308 seat Parliament.
Except it's turning out to be one of historic proportions.
in our system political parties endeavour for a majority: 155 (50% +1) seats or more, which gives that party's government almost absolute power. Canadians have not given any party a majority since 2004: we had a Liberal minority for 2 years and a Conservative minority for the past 5 years. In minority parliaments the assumption is that the party with a plurality of seats governs, so long as it gets enough support from at least one opposition party. The Conservatives, however, have instead sown the seeds of division: demonizing the other parties, using brinkmanship and manouevring, and flouting the conventions--and, allegedly--the rules of our political system. All the while spending millions of dollars assassinating the character of whomever leads their traditional rival the Liberal Party.
Rather effectively...perhaps too effectively. Because now, for the first time, Canada's third national party--the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) have passed the Liberals in polls. Currently the Tories (Conservatives) are running 5-8% ahead of the NDP, with the Grits (Liberals) running another 4-6% farther back. Which tells only part of the story...
...because it's regionally and locally where national elections are won in a parliamentary democracy. Right now the NDP is leading in Québec--the first "federalist" party to do so in many years. The provincial separatist Bloc Québécois's support has fallen by about half, with most of that going to the NDP. Add in a bit from the Grits and there's scope now for the NDP to win 15-50 seats in Québec. Currently they hold ONE.
In the Prairies the NDP might only pick up a couple of seats, but (at least) one will be in the province of Saskatchewan--which hasn't sent an NDP MP since 2004. In Atlantic Canada there's a tight 3 way race...but a seat-by-seat analysis shows there's little scope for the Tories to add seats and several they could lose. Here in BC there's always around 10 ridings that could go to any of the three parties--and the Liberal vote is collapsing, which often favours the NDP. Only Ontario hasn't shown a dramatic uptick for the NDP--though their 17 Ontario MPs when the election was called is the most the NDP has ever had.
The NDP is often derided for being too "left" for many Canadians. But there's something happening out there. I think there's a few factors at play:
The math on Tuesday morning will be very important. The Tories have already said if they win the most seats they will resubmit their budget from the last parliament. If they don't have a majority, it's likely the other parties will reject it. Which means either a new election...or the party with the second most seats could be asked to try and form a government. If the combined seats between the NDP and Liberals is 155 or more seats, there's reason to believe that they could work out an arrangement, if not a formal coalition.
Which means, almost certainly, that electoral reform will become a priority: it's a core part of NDP policy and a recently denuded Liberal party will now be more open to the possibility.
A reformed electoral system would mean parties would have to learn to cooperate. Everybody wins.
Oh, and if you're Canadian and don't vote on Monday (or in advance), please shut the fuck up until the next election. People who don't vote are lame. If you don't think so, ask an Algerian or Tunisian or Egyptian or Moldovan or....
Except it's turning out to be one of historic proportions.
in our system political parties endeavour for a majority: 155 (50% +1) seats or more, which gives that party's government almost absolute power. Canadians have not given any party a majority since 2004: we had a Liberal minority for 2 years and a Conservative minority for the past 5 years. In minority parliaments the assumption is that the party with a plurality of seats governs, so long as it gets enough support from at least one opposition party. The Conservatives, however, have instead sown the seeds of division: demonizing the other parties, using brinkmanship and manouevring, and flouting the conventions--and, allegedly--the rules of our political system. All the while spending millions of dollars assassinating the character of whomever leads their traditional rival the Liberal Party.
Rather effectively...perhaps too effectively. Because now, for the first time, Canada's third national party--the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) have passed the Liberals in polls. Currently the Tories (Conservatives) are running 5-8% ahead of the NDP, with the Grits (Liberals) running another 4-6% farther back. Which tells only part of the story...
...because it's regionally and locally where national elections are won in a parliamentary democracy. Right now the NDP is leading in Québec--the first "federalist" party to do so in many years. The provincial separatist Bloc Québécois's support has fallen by about half, with most of that going to the NDP. Add in a bit from the Grits and there's scope now for the NDP to win 15-50 seats in Québec. Currently they hold ONE.
In the Prairies the NDP might only pick up a couple of seats, but (at least) one will be in the province of Saskatchewan--which hasn't sent an NDP MP since 2004. In Atlantic Canada there's a tight 3 way race...but a seat-by-seat analysis shows there's little scope for the Tories to add seats and several they could lose. Here in BC there's always around 10 ridings that could go to any of the three parties--and the Liberal vote is collapsing, which often favours the NDP. Only Ontario hasn't shown a dramatic uptick for the NDP--though their 17 Ontario MPs when the election was called is the most the NDP has ever had.
The NDP is often derided for being too "left" for many Canadians. But there's something happening out there. I think there's a few factors at play:
- Québec is the province with more social democratic voters. Their votes have traditionally been split between the Liberals and the Bloc, depending on a voter's interest in Québec independence. After 20 years of Bloc MPs, the charmingly bilingual Jack Layton has, over the last 4 election cycles, positioned himself and his party as an alternative.
- Tory Prime Minister Harper's always left some people hot or cold; his politics of division has exacerbated this
- The Liberals have either voted with the Tories or skipped votes when they disagreed with them too often these last 5 years, undermining their credibility as an opposition--if you can't do the opposition job, why would folks trust you with governing?
- Layton and the NDP have focused on positive messages and everyone--even many thug Tories--agree he is an honourable, good guy
The math on Tuesday morning will be very important. The Tories have already said if they win the most seats they will resubmit their budget from the last parliament. If they don't have a majority, it's likely the other parties will reject it. Which means either a new election...or the party with the second most seats could be asked to try and form a government. If the combined seats between the NDP and Liberals is 155 or more seats, there's reason to believe that they could work out an arrangement, if not a formal coalition.
Which means, almost certainly, that electoral reform will become a priority: it's a core part of NDP policy and a recently denuded Liberal party will now be more open to the possibility.
A reformed electoral system would mean parties would have to learn to cooperate. Everybody wins.
Oh, and if you're Canadian and don't vote on Monday (or in advance), please shut the fuck up until the next election. People who don't vote are lame. If you don't think so, ask an Algerian or Tunisian or Egyptian or Moldovan or....
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 04:19 pm (UTC)Layton is making hay with all of this, including a 1200 person rally at L'Olympia on Saturday, just down the street from Duceppe's campaign office. Duceppe is not just dealing with a clearly unplanned-for NDP ascendancy, but also he's been head of the Bloc for a long time, he and everyone else is tired. In the last 2 elections, Duceppe received a plurality of votes, but that plurality seems to be slowly shrinking, with the NDP gaining in each election (the Conservatives don't seem to be running a candidate against Duceppe this time around).
I hope electoral reform does become a priority, as you say, since the Bloc benefits greatly from the system in place now.
no subject
Date: 2011-04-29 05:15 pm (UTC)